As much as general manager Ryan Poles would like it to be true, the Bears’ choices in the upcoming draft aren’t totally wide open. Despite his free agency haul of offensive and defensive linemen, the roster still has obvious needs.
They should use their three picks in the first two rounds of the draft — Nos. 10, 39 and 41 — with just as much precision as they spent their salary-cap dollars.
The Bears might spin this differently leading up to the draft, but they weren’t happy with left tackle Braxton Jones’ play last season before it ended when he broke his ankle, and he’s still their starter.
Jones has been a success story of the Poles administration. The Bears drafted him in the fifth round in 2022 out of Southern Utah and developed him into a serviceable left tackle. That’s a win, but they might have reached the limit of how good he can be.
The Bears could continue with Jones and hope that he’ll improve on his own and benefit from playing next to an enhanced interior, particularly with Pro Bowl left guard Joe Thuney next to him.
There are concerns, though, for the upcoming season and beyond. It’d be brutal if Jones struggles again and the Bears undercut their offensive line renovation by sticking with him. Plus, he’s going into the last year of his contract. Are the Bears ready to pay him like a starting left tackle, a position at which 11 players have contracts averaging $20 million or more?
Drafting a left tackle with the No. 10 overall pick, conversely, would cost the Bears about $6 million per year for the next four seasons. They can hope top prospect Will Campbell slides to them, or they can take highly rated alternatives like Missouri’s Armand Membou, Texas’ Kelvin Banks and Ohio State’s Josh Simmons.
In that scenario, Jones would be arguably the league’s best swing tackle and would help the Bears withstand injuries.
The No. 39 pick is extremely valuable, too. In the last four drafts, Broncos wide receiver Marvin Mims, Bills running back James Cook and Lions safety Brian Branch — all Pro Bowl selections — were available at that spot.
The Bears picked cornerback Kyler Gordon at No. 39 in 2022 and safety Jaquan Brisker nine spots later. Offensive lineman Teven Jenkins, tight end Cole Kmet and cornerback Jaylon Johnson were available in that range in 2020 and ’21, too.
The point is that at Nos. 39 and 41, the Bears can find immediate contributors with the capacity to develop into above-average starters.
The most valuable positions, like pass rusher, will have been quite picked over by that point, but it’s an ideal time to pick up an interior offensive lineman. That would give the Bears additional insurance against injury this season and a contingency for next season if something doesn’t work out or Thuney leaves in free agency.
Running back was another spot the Bears didn’t address in free agency, and it’s clear they need help there. D’Andre Swift should be better behind an upgraded offensive line, but it’s ideal to have two options, and Roschon Johnson has yet to show he can be a regular part of the offense.
The dream for the Bears would be to land Iowa running back Kaleb Johnson at No. 41, and that would also put them in good position as they approach an affordable out on Swift’s contract after this season.
After that, with a third-round pick (No. 72 overall), a fifth (No. 148) and two sevenths (Nos. 233 and 240), anything Poles finds is a bonus. Maybe the Bears get lucky and pick up a pass-catching tight end like LSU’s Mason Taylor in the third round or find a defensive lineman they can develop for depth.
But there’s urgency with those top three picks, even after making gains in free agency.
