“Getting people to talk to each other makes the biggest difference,” said Britain’s national security adviser Jonathan Powell back in 2014 after the publication of his book on conflict resolution.
The former chief-of-staff to Tony Blair was in Kyiv this weekend to advise the Ukraine delegation preparing to fly to Saudi Arabia for talks today. Powell will have urged them to “adopt the sort of language during the talks with the Americans in Riyadh which will somehow bridge the gap between Trump’s demands and threats”, said The Spectator.
Talks between Ukraine and the US aimed at negotiating an end to the war with Russia will mark the first high-level meeting between the two countries since last month’s unprecedented White House bust-up between Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
‘A good guy and a bad guy’
In an attempt to mend bridges with the Trump administration, Ukraine’s president last week indicated he was ready for peace negotiations. He summarised terms for a peace plan, which could include “the release of prisoners and truce in the sky – ban on missiles, long-ranged drones, bombs on energy and other civilian infrastructure – and truce in the sea immediately, if Russia will do the same”, said Al Jazeera.
A temporary truce of the kind suggested by Zelenskyy could be part of a “confidence-building exercise”, and will likely be at the “centre” of discussions in Jeddah, Timothy Ash, from the Chatham House think tank, told Al Jazeera. A revival of the much-touted minerals deal might also be on the table if talks proceed amicably.
Freezing all military aid, ending intelligence sharing and publicly dressing down Zelenskyy is all part of Trump’s plan “to bring Ukraine to heel and force the country to negotiate on peace”, said The Telegraph.
The impact of these measures – in particular on intelligence – has been “immediate and dramatic”, said Jonathan Chait in The Atlantic. Enjoying the element of surprise, Russian air attacks have pounded newly exposed Ukrainian civilian targets while Russian forces have been able to carry out a sudden assault in the Kursk region.
This represents an “important evolution” in Trump’s negotiating strategy. “He is no longer arguing for peace at any price. Instead, he has identified a good guy (Russia) and a bad guy (Ukraine).” In Trump’s view, the “good guy definitely wants peace” and the bad guy is “standing in the way of a settlement”. What we have now is Trump’s opinion that “the only way to secure peace is for the good guy to inflict more death on the bad guy”.
‘You don’t have the cards’
To show they are serious – and hopefully restore much-needed US military aid and intelligence support – Ukraine’s “opening gambit in its pursuit of an equitable peace with Russia” this week is expected to include a proposal for a sea and air truce, said The Times.
But while this would bring some relief from relentless air attacks, a “ceasefire that bought time for Russia, while Ukraine got no reinforcements, would be a disaster for Kyiv”, said The Independent.
Were a subsequent ceasefire to break down, “it is now certain that Zelenskyy, or his successor, would be blamed for the breach by the Trump administration”. This could then see Trump play his “last major card” by asking Elon Musk to suspend the Starlink satellite broadband network, which is so crucial to Ukraine’s survival.
“You don’t have the cards,” Trump taunted Zelenskyy during the recent clash in the Oval Office.
Arguably the US president is the one snatching away any cards Ukraine did hold. Nevertheless, Zelenskyy is left with “a painful choice” in Saudi Arabia, said The Independent – “bend the knee to Trump or lose his country”.