The Cubs are the consensus favorites to win the NL Central division this season. The Cubs have not made the playoffs in a full season since 2018. Additionally, they have not won a playoff game since 2017. The Cubs look to buck that trend this season.
The vast majority of sports books give the Cubs the best chance at winning the division. DraftKings has the Cubs as +125 favorites followed by the Brewers at +260, Cardinals at +600, Reds at +650, and Pirates at +700. Meanwhile, Fanduel gives the Cubs an even higher chance with -105 betting odds compared to +290 for the Brewers, +490 for the Reds, +850 for the Cardinals, and +1000 for the Pirates. While the numbers vary based on the bookie the consensus for the Central remains the same. Vegas expects the Central to come down to the Cubs and the Brewers with the majority favoring the Cubs.
Will Milwaukee take a step back?
Despite winning the division in three of the last four seasons, the Brewers are expected by many to take a slight step down in 2025. The Brew Crew lost arguably their two best players when star shortstop Willy Adames signed a 7-year $182 million with the Giants and pitcher Devin Williams was shipped off to the Yankees. Adames was the real “thumper” in the Brewer lineup. His 32 homers last season will be hard to replicate for the Brewers in 2025. While Devin Williams had been dealing with injuries, his 1.83 career ERA made him one of the game’s best bullpen arms.
Additionally Baseball Prospectus PECOTA model predicts the Brewers will win a measly 80 games this season. This projection sites regression in the lineup paired with a depleted bullpen as the reason for their demise.
Good projections for the Cubs
Meanwhile, the Cubs may be the opposite. According to that same model, the Cubs are expected to win 90 games and have a 79.4% chance to win the Central. Interestingly, this ranks third in all of MLB behind the Dodgers (103.8) and Braves (92.4) as the highest projected win total in MLB. Unlike the Brewers, the Cubs added firepower this offseason trading for Kyle Tucker and signing veterans such as Matthew Boyd, Ryan Pressley, and Eli Morgan.
Current Cubs manager, and former Brewers skipper, Craig Counsell has accumulated seven winning records in his ten-year managerial career. Included in that is three seasons winning 90 or more games, with his most being 96 in 2018. He was one of the men most responsible for the Cubs losing control of the division in the late 2010s. Now that he is on the other side he is trying to get it back. The Cubs surely hope so as last offseason they made him the highest-paid manager in history to cross the picket line and join his division rivals.
A little luck goes a long way
When looking at the Cubs Pythagorean winning percentage from last year (Runs scored – Runs allowed = Winning percentage) you see the 2024 Cubs were calculated at 88 wins. In reality, the 2024 Cubs won 83. It is reasonable to say that the 2024 Cubs were unlucky. It’s also reasonable to say that key offseason additions should get this team over the hump. The Cubs look to be concluding the rebuild they began in 2021 this season. Cub fans have remained patient, but another year without the postseason could spell the demise of Cubs president Jed Hoyer.
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