This spring training has been an excellent indicator of just how good Cubs centerfielder Pete Crow-Armstrong could be. So far he is batting .500/.476/.850 with an OPS of 1.326. Encouraging signs from a young hitter who struggled to hit big-league pitching at times last season. But with his bat hopefully making some strides, combined with his all-world defense and baserunning, the question remains on just how high his ceiling truly is as a player.
Since coming over from the Mets in 2021 via a trade for fan favorite Javier Baez, Crow-Armstrong has been a joy to watch. His vibrant personality (and hair) have paired well with his electric play on the field, both in the minors and majors.
A promising first season
Last season was his first with regular playing time in the majors. He played in 123 games for the big league club and was a productive player accumulating 2.3 bWAR. Unfortunately, that value was not assisted much by his bat as his .670 OPS and 88 OPS+ were both below league average. Those numbers hardly strike you as someone who could ascend the baseball ranks to become the game’s next megastar, but adding some context might change that.
For starters, his defense in center and baserunning are game-changing. According to Baseball Savant his fielding run value is 99th percentile while his baserunning is 98th. Additionally, his 97th percentile outs above average, 98th percentile arm value, and 99th percentile sprint speed make him one of the game’s most intriguing players.
These values reflect a player whose speed and defense are weapons for the Cubs, and his various adventures around the bases are proof of that. Just this week he went from the batter’s box to home plate on his line-drive single and stole home from second on a passed ball. Add to this his inside-the-park home run last season against the Marlins, and it’s clear just how powerful his speed can be.
But what about his bat?
First, it’s important to note that even with a below-average bat last year he was able to produce like an above-average player overall. It is also realistic to imagine that Crow-Armstrong makes strides with his bat this season, as many young players do. Last year was a tale of two offensive seasons for the rookie center fielder.
In August of last season, he had an OPS over .930, which was around the season-long mark of Ketel Marte and Brent Rooker. While this sample size is limited, it does provide a glimpse into his true potential. He certainly can hit professional pitching as evidenced by his .883 lifetime OPS in the minor leagues. If he can become even a league-average hitter, he will become a great player for Chicago. But if he can take that next step and become above average or even good with his bat like he did in the minors… watch out.
He may be a Unicorn
Pete Crow-Armstrong is one of the few players in Major League Baseball who could become truly elite while having average offensive production. Think of Dansby Swanson if he suddenly gained the speed of Usain Bolt. Dansby is similarly a superb defender while being average offensively. Over his last three seasons, Swanson has accumulated an average of 4.8 bWAR per 162 games. He has also been an All-Star and won a gold glove in two of those seasons.
With his defensive prowess, Crow-Armstrong has drawn comparisons to legends such as Ken Griffey Jr and Andruw Jones. But neither of those players had the game-breaking speed quite to the effect of Crow-Armstrong. It would be ridiculous for me to predict that he will ever hit as well as either of them, especially Griffey, but to say I don’t think Crow-Armstrong could end up in Cooperstown if all goes right would be a lie.
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