The Cubs top prospect is ready for his graduation to the big leagues. The 23-year-old first-round pick out of Maryland has dominated the minors in his two seasons since joining the Cubs organization. Shaw had a .908 cumulative OPS in both AA and AAA last season. Shaw has climbed his way up the ladder to become the Cubs’ top-ranked prospect and the 19th-ranked prospect in all of MLB. After making his spring training debut this week, fans may have gotten a glimpse at what is ahead for the 2025 season.
He will get his chance to grow
While Shaw comes into this Cubs season unproven, he will likely have the opportunity to grow as the season goes along. When asked about the potential role for the top prospect Cubs manager Craig Counsell said “It’s time for Matt to go out and play, Matt’s passed a lot of tests.”
So how will the former Maryland Terp do on his biggest test yet? For starters, it’s important to understand the peaks and valleys that most young players face in their rookie season. Rookie seasons like Paul Skenes, Aaron Judge, and Gunnar Henderson are anomalies, and not to be seen as the standard.
The Kris Bryant Treatment
Speaking of unfair standards for a rookie, let’s give an example Cubs fans would remember well. Kris Bryant burst onto the scene in 2015 with a .275/.369/.488 slash line as a rookie. Additionally, he accumulated 5.3 bWAR and won National League Rookie of the Year honors. Kris Bryant peaked as the #2 prospect in baseball before the 2015 MLB season and exactly 10 years later the Cubs have another top prospect waiting in the wings. Shaw isn’t quite the prospect Bryant was and doesn’t have billboards dedicated to him before his debut, but Cubs fans are understandably eager to see him make his debut this season.
He projects as league-average in Year 1
When looking at his Zips projections, Matt Shaw is expected to slash .247/.320/.402 while having a slightly above league average 105 WRC+. His expected fWAR total is 2.2 according to these projections which would essentially make him a league-average player in year one. While these are no Kris Bryant numbers, Cubs fans should be optimistic if this is his output year one, especially given this will be his first season of major league competition and that his game has evolved at every stop he has made so far.
Another big question for Matt Shaw in year one is his defense at the hot corner. While he has played a plethora of positions in the minors, he has logged over 560 innings at third, the spot he more than likely will play at moving forward. According to many sources within the Cubs system, Matt Shaws’ defensive prowess has steadily improved and he should be able to play an average third base in the big leagues after an adjustment period. Additionally, he offers plus base running and good instincts on the bases, with thirty-one stolen bases in 2024.
Only the beginning for Shaw
Overall Cubs fans should be optimistic for Matt Shaws rookie season, but to expect superstar-level production in year one may be setting themselves up for disappointment. He will likely be an average player in his rookie season relative to the rest of MLB, but his makeup as a player makes it a strong possibility that this is only the beginning for the young third baseman.
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