Forward, March.
Into the best month of a truly weird men’s college basketball season we go.
But first, a show of hands: Anyone else out there old enough to remember Kansas, UConn and North Carolina being good at basketball?
I said “weird,” didn’t I? The Jayhawks, the preseason No. 1, are six games out of first place in the Big 12 and not even ranked. The Huskies, the two-time defending national champs, have gone from No. 3 in the preseason to not appearing on a single one of the 60 voter ballots that made up the most recent AP poll. The Tar Heels, another top 10 team going in, haven’t received a single vote since before the new year. Gonzaga and Baylor started out in the top 10, too, and are every bit as disappointing as the others mentioned.
Blue bloods? More like boo-hoo bloods. But enough about them.
It’s March! Alas, that likely means heartbreak will soon come for the Big Ten, which still hasn’t won a national championship in men’s basketball since Michigan State did it in 2000. That was back in the baggy-shorts era, when Tom Izzo was only 45 and sounded like he was only 80. The voice is even raspier now, and Izzo, 70, has a top 10 team. One supposes the Spartans might as well keep trying.
But we’re not at the NCAA Tournament yet. Selection Sunday doesn’t arrive for another couple of weeks, and I’m still looking for answers to a bunch of questions. Here are three of them:
1. Will a Big Ten team separate itself from the rest?
Although Illinois reached the Elite Eight last season, it was clear all along Purdue was the conference’s best team and by far its best shot to end the title drought. It’s not like that at all this time around.
Michigan State is athletic and deep (but can’t shoot the three). Michigan has great size and composure (but never has an easy game). Wisconsin has the best offense (but not much of a defense). Maryland has the best starting five (but no depth). Purdue has the best point guard in Braden Smith (but no Zach Edey).
A total of 11 Big Ten teams are in ESPN expert Joe Lunardi’s latest NCAA bracket, with the Spartans leading the way as a 2 seed. But there’s no strong sense of “best” in this league, not by a long shot. (Did I mention the Spartans can’t shoot?)
2. The SEC or the field?
After a down season in football, the SEC has owned the hoops season to this point. Auburn is ranked No. 1, trailed closely by Florida (3), Tennessee (5) and Alabama (6). Four other conference teams are ranked. Thirteen in all are in Lunardi’s bracket. Thanks in part to league expansion, we’ve never seen anything like it.
But will the SEC produce the champ for the first time since Kentucky, led by freshman sensation Anthony Davis, won it all in 2012? The gambling fiend that sits on one of my shoulders swears it’s a popular futures wager on betting apps.
This league could have two No. 1 seeds, two 2s and two 3s in the tournament, as many top-three seeds — six — as all other leagues combined. Since the tournament grew to 64 teams, 34 of 39 champs have been a 1 (25), a 2 (five) or a 3 (four).
SEC? Field? Seems like a coin flip at this point.
3. Might the SEC be overrated?
If polls aren’t infamous for being flawed, they should be. Voters rally around certain teams early on, despite having little evidence, and attach extreme import to those teams’ games from there, shaping the rankings throughout the season. It’s a self-fulfilling prophecy of sorts.
Who says the Big 12 — with Houston, Arizona, Texas Tech, Iowa State and BYU — isn’t every bit as strong as the SEC? Maybe those teams being so tough has a lot to do with why Kansas is in sixth place and Baylor is in eighth.
The Big East has won four of the last eight titles and has St. John’s playing as well as UConn or Villanova ever has in the regular season. By the way, until somebody actually knocks UConn out of the Big Dance, the possibility of a three-peat will exist.
And the Big Ten, well, it might not even belong in this discussion. Twenty-four years since the last title is a hell of a stretch. The shorts have gotten shorter, but the drought only gets longer.