Slightly more than one month into President Donald Trump’s second term, a pattern has emerged: while his policy goals align with national needs, his methods to implement them are often overreaching.
Put another way, Trump’s main policy goals – securing the border, cutting government waste, lowering inflation, and restoring American strength – are what the country needs, although the administration’s pace threatens to introduce chaos.
And while there is plenty of time for the administration to recalibrate its approach, prolonged overreach by Trump could open doors for Democrats to exploit ahead of next year’s midterms.
To that end, the newly created Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) perfectly embodies the dilemma facing the administration as it enters its second month.
On one hand, DOGE’s goals of cutting excessive government spending and shrinking the deficit are widely supported (59% per Reuters/Ipsos polling).
Similarly, a plurality (48%) of Americans think that DOGE’s mandate should either be expanded (21%) or kept as is (27%) according to a recent poll by Economist/YouGov.
On the other hand, the way the cuts have been rolled out – in breakneck speed and often with little or any clarity – have sparked deep confusion and even concern among the public and companies.
Indeed, nearly 6-in-10 (58%) Americans are concerned that DOGE’s cuts to federal services will threaten the benefits they receive such as Social Security or Medicare, per the aforementioned Reuters/Ipsos poll.
Americans’ anxiety over the way the Trump administration is going about achieving its goals is reinforced by February’s Consumer Confidence Index, which dropped to its lowest level in almost four years.
Other economic indicators also suggest that some of Trump’s economic policies, such as tariffs, and the confusion they engender may prove to be a vulnerability. The stock market, which Trump often used as a measure of success during his first term, has been negative since inauguration day.
And the fight against inflation took a hit when January’s Consumer Price Index showed it to be rising. While not Trump’s fault, it will make it harder for him to live up to his campaign promises to successfully fight rising prices.
That being said, it is still very early, and looking through the noise, Trump is having some genuine successes.
Illegal border crossings last weekend hit the lowest record in 15 years according to Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem.
Americans recognize this. There is overwhelming support (81%) for deporting violent criminals, and a majority approve of Trump’s handling of immigration (56%) according to a recent Harvard/Harris survey.
That Trump is generally aiming in the right direction but tends to overreach is not limited to domestic issues.
On foreign policy, Trump’s efforts to end the war in Ukraine has brought a ceasefire closer than ever, although there are concerns in how Trump envisions a ceasefire deal. In treating Ukraine like a simple business negotiation, it risks leaving our European allies dangerously vulnerable and empowering Putin.
In that same vein, Trump is correct in asserting that Europe must do more to stand on its own two feet. However, the brashness in which the administration speaks to our European allies threatens longstanding and mutually beneficial alliances.
And in Gaza, Trump’s pressure did lead to a ceasefire which has held thus far. His full-throated support of Israel is a welcome change, particularly as shocking details and images of Hamas’ brutality continue to emerge.
In all likelihood, Trump is much more likely to achieve success in the Middle East, where, despite roiling Arab leaders with plans to “take over Gaza,” his out-of-the-box approach is at least something new after decades of failed American policy in the region.
Trump’s approach to Europe and the Middle East underscore a crucial point and a liability for the administration. Americans may support an “America first” foreign policy, but an “America only” policy that upends allies and adds more geopolitical instability will not find the same level of support.
To be sure, it is worth repeating that Trump’s term is barely one month old, and it will take time for some of his successes to bear out. During his first term, his biggest foreign policy success – the Abraham Accords – was not signed until the administration’s closing days.
However, it is equally worth noting that the chaos surrounding the administration’s early policies may give Democrats an opening to retake control of Congress next year.
This is particularly problematic when it comes to Medicaid cuts.
Trump’s desire for “one big, beautiful bill” encompassing virtually all of his agenda will almost certainly require cutting funding for Medicaid, and even Republican Congressmen are worried.
GOP Rep. Jeff Van Drew called Trump last week to warn him that Medicaid cuts will expose Republicans to “devastating attacks” and that they “could very easily lose the majority for it.”
For their part, Democrats have already begun attacking the GOP for threatening Medicaid.
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee released multiple press releases slamming vulnerable Republicans, and protests have sprung up at Congressional Republicans’ offices.
One would expect these attacks to intensify, as Medicaid is a significant concern for the more than 70 million Americans covered by Medicaid.
It remains to be seen how this impacts the midterms, although given Republicans’ extremely thin margin in the House, Rep. Van Drew may prove correct.
Ultimately, while it is far too early to conclude how Trump’s second term will play out, it is clear that at this point, Trump appears to have the right goals in mind, but aggressive implementation threatens their success.
The policies he campaigned – and won – on may genuinely benefit the country, as his early wins on border security suggest.
However, the administration’s pace and tendency towards overreach create chaos and confusion among Americans, something Democrats are likely to continue exploiting.
The battle over potential Medicaid cuts demonstrates how quickly a national need – eliminating government waste – can transform into a significant liability for Republicans.
Going forward, Trump and the administration’s ability to maintain its policy direction while recalibrating their methods will be critical to watch.
Douglas Schoen is a longtime Democratic political consultant.