SAN FRANCISCO — Draymond Green might have been onto something.
Perhaps the Warriors forward and the NBA’s most outspoken player was playing to a partisan crowd outside of Chase Center during All-Star weekend.
Maybe he was trying to manufacture another viral moment with the hottest take of the year.
But when Green declared that the Warriors, sitting in the No. 10 seed in the Western Conference at the time, but with Jimmy Butler in tow, “are going to win the championship,” it was aggregated, discarded, and lampooned.
The joke might be on anyone who dismissed the idea, though. The difference is the Dubs’ new No. 10.
The Butler era is just seven games old — early days yet — but the Warriors have won six of those games. There’s no interpretation of this Butler trade that isn’t favorable.
What’s not to like? After a not-too-short hiatus, the Warriors again look like the capital T, capital W Dubs — vanguards of ball and player movement and the smartest team in the NBA.
And as for extrapolation, the Warriors — not just Green — feel like the sky is the limit.
New data requires new opinions.
And while there are plenty of possible pitfalls on the path back to the top—no one should bet the rent backing Green’s proclamation—the new evidence suggests that the Warriors have a fighting chance at making the Saginaw Soothsayer right again.
But how has Butler changed the Warriors’ fortunes so quickly and effectively?
Warriors coach Steve Kerr — peppered with questions about the Dubs’ new star Monday — proffered a few suggestions, but one kept seeping through:
IQ.
“He’s a brilliant basketball mind,” Kerr said.
As much as the Warriors’ success over the last decade has been a testament to their athletic greatness, the difference between them and their top rivals over the years has been between the ears. The Dubs play smarter and have been mentally tougher.
The Warriors swayed from the righteous path in recent years. Even a few weeks ago — yes, weeks — they traded for Dennis Schröder, a player whose style of play and on-court temperament was downright antithetical to the way Kerr wants to play. It was a gamble that didn’t pay off — he was shipped out as part of the Butler trade.
“I see a lot of the same qualities from Jimmy that I saw in Andre [Iguodala]. They’re different players, but the feel, the IQ, the understanding of each possession — the importance [given] to each possession… just constantly being in the right spot. Very similar to Andre.”
If Iguodala was the team’s “babysitter” (a nickname Kerr admitted Iguodala hated Monday), then Butler is the team’s “designated driver.”
“We’ve always been our best when we can put a lot of IQ next to Steph and Dray so we can complement the chaos they create with a measured and thoughtful approach that gives us an all-around attack,” Kerr said.
And with Butler, you have a “connector” who is not only able to make winning plays on both sides of the court, but he’s also capable of holding down the fort when Curry is sitting — this team’s bugaboo since Kevin Durant’s departure following the 2019 season.
The Warriors have a better net rating with Curry off the court and Butler on it (plus 32.3 points per 100 possessions in 69 minutes) than vice versa (plus 26.2 in 80 minutes).
At the same time, Curry’s average shot distance on 2 pointers is now two feet closer to the basket when he’s playing alongside Butler — a clear indication that despite Butler’s lack of 3-point prowess, he’s creating more space on the floor for Curry to operate. Adding to that argument is the fact that the Warriors’ shot selection with Butler is almost identical, save for one tweak: The Warriors have turned five above-the-break 3-pointers into corner 3-pointers in the last seven games. The latter is the most optimal shot in the game and a priority for opposing defenses — the 3-point line in the corner is 21 inches closer to the hoop, after all. To turn one into the other shows an offense that’s humming.
You can see it. This is the Warriors’ system at its best.
And the Dubs aren’t even knocking down their open looks yet.
“That’s one of the things I’m really kind of excited about,” Kerr said. “We haven’t even shot it well the last 10, but we’re executing well. That bodes well for when the ball starts going in.”
The trade that brought Butler to San Francisco also forced Kerr, his staff, and the Warriors roster to get down to brass tacks. The Dubs shipped out four players to land Butler, meaning everyone left on the roster had to find a role to fill.
The Warriors in the pre-Butler era were downright ambiguous. Lineups were constantly changing, and roles, in turn, did too. In the Warriors’ quest to find a No. 2 to play alongside Curry, they failed to define roles for players Nos. 3 and beyond.
Anything went — Kerr couldn’t do much but sit back and see who in his massive rotation stepped up on any given night. It made the season feel aimless.
But with Butler firmly in the No. 2 role, everyone else had to find a way to fit in.
“It’s always way easier to be a role player when you’re playing with great players than when you’re trying to mix-and-match different combinations,” Kerr said.
Moses Moody has been called upon to be a 3-and-D wing. He’s thriving with the increased opportunities.
Brandin Podziemski has received more opportunity as the team’s backup point guard once again — he and Butler have developed an incredible level of chemistry in a short period of time, with the second-year guard averaging five points per 100 possessions more with Butler on the squad.
“[It’s] Just the IQ that each possesses, it plays well together. They see the passes, they see the cuts. You put them together with Steph and Draymond out there and there’s a lot of possibilities for them,” Kerr said.
Yes, there’s that initialism again. It’ll define the rest of the season.
Maybe the Warriors will lack the size or the shooting, or perhaps someone will twist an ankle, or Jonathan Kuminga will decide he doesn’t like his new role upon return from injury — countless things can prove Green’s brash prediction incorrect in the coming weeks.
But when you watch the Warriors these days, it’s hard not to believe they can do something this postseason.
Butler carried two also-ran teams into the NBA Finals. Curry won a title in 2022 with Andrew Wiggins and Kevon Looney as his Nos. 2 and 3. What can the two do together?
I’ll bet on the smarter, mentally tougher team in a seven-game series in the West.
And for the first time in a long time, we can say with some conviction that the Warriors will be just that.