At the turn of the century, policy “elites” spoke of climate change, not global warming. But, as the debate evolved and became mainstream, the opinion elites again moved the goalposts. Now they talk about global warming “solutions” that mandate increased electrification.
Today, the air we breathe is dramatically cleaner. Among the many technological advances are “smart” appliances found in many homes. However, these modernizations come at a price. Electricity costs more, and demand struggles to meet available supply.
As consumers, we look for opportunities to help clean the air. However, many of the proposed solutions pushed by the elites come with significant costs attached and provide fewer environmental benefits.
Case and point are two rules currently under discussion by the South Coast Air Quality Management District (SCAQMD) Governing Board.
While families continue to reel from high costs and stubborn inflation, two proposed rules under consideration by the SCAQMD, Proposed Amended Rules (PAR) 1111 and 1121, would make these challenges far worse. If adopted, these rules will require homeowners, landlords, and businesses to replace their natural gas-powered furnaces and water heaters with costly zero-emission electric units. More than 17 million Southern Californians would be impacted. The natural gas-powered water heaters and furnaces in use today will be illegal to purchase or install as soon as next year.
Based on the SCAQMD’s estimates, the proposed rule changes would impact more than 5.1 million water heaters. The economic impact across the South Coast Air Basin would be more than $20.4 billion when factoring in conversion costs. These two rules would undoubtedly be the costliest rulemaking SCAQMD has ever undertaken.
Interestingly, little to no debate or any public outreach by the SCAQMD has occurred on these costly rules. That is not by accident. Unless delayed or modified, beginning as early as 2027, the SCAQMD’s proposal would implement the phasing out of all natural gas-powered units, even ultra-low emitting options.
The costs of the SCAQMD’s rules would economically harm many Southern California residents. Housing prices continue to rise and rents continue to increase in every community. Politicians decry housing unaffordability and discuss real concerns about families, particularly in communities of color, being priced out of their homes and onto the street. Yet, they sit idly by and allow bureaucrats to implement a multi-billion-dollar regulation that impacts millions of Angelenos.
SCAQMD staff can or will not provide a cost estimate of Rules 1111 and 1121. Equally frustrating, while projections regarding total emissions reductions basin-wide are public, SCAQMD staff haven’t or won’t speculate on the emissions reductions per unit expected from these two proposed rules.
We know that professionals who install water heaters estimate the average replacement costs at anywhere from $4,000-$20,000 to convert gas water heaters to electric. Imagine you’re an apartment owner in an older building. Replacement will require an electrical panel upgrade and new wiring. This “transition” to all-electric will result in staggering costs for homeowners and exponentially more significant costs for multi-family housing.
Many families and small businesses, including Latino and African American, will be unable to handle the increased costs of keeping their homes warm and the hot water running. For new construction, these harmful rules would take effect in 2026, adding to already high construction costs and further driving up housing prices.
Many of us survived the early 2000s electricity crisis when a lack of capacity and increased demand during the hot summer months caused frequent rolling blackouts. That crisis underscored how vulnerable we were then and still are now.
Forcing renters, homeowners, and small businesses to purchase zero-emission water heaters and furnaces would massively increase the demand for electricity on California’s already stressed electric grid. Californians pay the nation’s second-highest electricity bills, and these rules compound that problem. Worse still, with millions of new electric devices feeding off a stretched power grid, the risk of even more outages becomes increasingly real.
The SCAQMD Governing Board needs to remove its rose-colored glasses and recognize the extraordinary economic impact of their proposed rules. Southern California has made tangible progress in reducing emissions. However, a $20.4 billion rule that impacts 17 million consumers lacks common sense.
Is housing affordability our top regional concern? Apparently not for the SCAQMD.
Michael Bustamante is president and founder of the Latino Consumer Federation, a national nonprofit organization dedicated to the advancement and empowerment of the Latino community and its growing consumer base. Learn more at www.latinoconsumerfed.org.