For every action, says one principle of both physics and politics, there is a reaction. So when President Donald Trump threatened to put conditions on disaster aid in the wake of California’s unprecedented January firestorms, there was a reaction.
Many Californians, according to a poll taken during those Southern California blazes, the most devastating in American history in dollars’ worth of damages, appear more favorable than before to the idea of divorce, or at least some form of separation, from the rest of the nation.
The question could even be on the November ballot next year, as an initiative that would essentially be a straw poll has been authorized to start seeking voter signatures. It would need signatures from 546,651 voters to qualify for an advisory vote. The sponsor is a group called Cal Exit Now, whose leader, Fresno-based Marcus Ruiz Evans, has spent years promoting secession.
Secession, of course, is not a new idea. It has been around at least 15 years without drawing much support. Most Californians agreed with Gov. Gavin Newsom, who said in a 2018 interview that “I’m not interested in secession, ever.”
He’s certainly not in favor of it now, when the only political future he can anticipate after being termed out in late 2026 is a possible run for president.
But an unprecedented number of Californians like some form of the idea. The recent survey was conducted while fires were still active between Jan. 6 and Jan. 14 by the YouGov firm for another secession outfit, the Independent California Institute, based in north San Diego County. The poll of 500 persons found 61 percent believe most Californians would be better off if the state peacefully secedes. The survey had a margin of error of about 5.6 percent.
But a slightly larger majority, 62 percent, did not believe California can secede peacefully. Never mind that Republican Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia, a close Trump ally, has called for a split.
“We need a national divorce. We need to separate by red states and blue states,” Greene tweeted. “Everyone I talk to says this.”
Her notion suggests that states like Oregon and Washington would readily follow if California leaves the Union peacefully. It also implies Republican-led states might be glad to kiss California goodbye.
But a more popular idea, according to the January survey, is for California to try for some kind of autonomous status within the USA. The state has long had special rights when it comes to environmental law, the 1970 Clean Air Act granting authority that led to things like catalytic converters and electric vehicles.
Fully 66 percent backed the idea of California creating its own permanent government commission charged with helping the state gain more autonomy. And slightly more than half of state residents said they feel more Californian than American. Plus, 73 percent in the poll said it is accurate to call California a “nation-state.”
Consistent with this, 62 percent said Californians would be better off if all public lands in the state were under control of California government, reversing today’s scene where 97 percent of public lands are federal.
And a large majority (77 percent) of those polled thought California’s largest-in-the-nation House delegation should unite across party lines and refuse to OK new budgets unless the Trump administration gives California added autonomy. One tactic favored by that large majority is letting California control its borders like a country rather than merely checking for forbidden fruit at its network of existing checkpoints.
All this may surprise Trump, but it should not. A survey taken about one year earlier showed similar findings, but not quite so strong as this year’s, which came in as Trump threatened to withhold disaster aid.
Californians’ sense of identifying more with the state than the nation, however, is brand new, contradicting the 2024 finding on that question.
So far, no significant California politician has made autonomy a central cause, nor even hinted at this. But if Trump continues what some call his “war on California,” no one can predict what might follow, except that there will be a reaction of some kind, its exact nature and outcome yet to be determined.
Email Thomas Elias at tdelias@aol.com, and read more of his columns online at californiafocus.net.