Welcome to a weekly feature on the Hotline. We’ll break down Big 12 basketball using key metrics (NET rankings, KenPom ratings, etc.), our observations and a dose of old-fashioned sarcasm (when needed) — all in the name of providing fans with the state-of-play in one of the nation’s toughest conferences.
(Results listed for games in the past week.)
The NCAA Tournament field will be revealed in three-and-a-half weeks. Fortunately, Arizona has provided a helpful hint for filling out your brackets in the office pool.
Over a fascinating, timely 72-hour stretch, the Wildcats showed the world exactly where they stand.
The NCAA Tournament selection committee released its real-time top 16 overall seeds on Saturday morning, hours before the Wildcats faced Houston. The Cougars were assigned to the No. 2 line, one better than Arizona.
The seed reveal turned their afternoon matchup into what was effectively a Sweet 16 showdown (No. 2 vs. 3). The Wildcats weren’t quite good enough, particularly on offense, as Houston took control late and closed out a 62-58 victory.
In other words, the Wildcats finished a few baskets short, at home, against a No. 2 seed — all of which suggests the second weekend of the NCAAs could be their ceiling.
We wonder about their perimeter offense and their frontcourt defense. Are they tough enough? What happens if Caleb Love goes 3-of-16 from the field?
Without a miracle shot (by Love), the Wildcats would have lost at home to both Houston and Iowa State, which was slotted on the No. 3 seed line by the selection committee.
But there’s also hard evidence indicating Arizona has the ingredients to advance to the Sweet 16: Just 48 hours after losing at home to Houston, the Wildcats won impressively at Baylor.
Now, the Bears should not be mistaken for a high seed — they look destined for the No. 8 or 9 lines, comparable to the type of team the Wildcats would face in the second round of the NCAAs: a middle-tier finisher from one of the power conferences that has plenty of talent but lacks consistency.
If the Wildcats can win in Waco, they certainly are good enough to survive on a neutral court in the round of 32.
We typically don’t project NCAA matchups and success this far out. But the results against Houston and Baylor, fresh off the early seed reveal, seemingly offer more insight into NCAA matchups than would normally be the case.
Granted, the situation is fluid. Arizona could improve over time or, perhaps, regress. Our hunch is the change will be more subtle than significant. Coach Tommy Lloyd’s rotation is set. Production capabilities have been established. Barring injuries, the Wildcats we see now are mostly the Wildcats we’ll see in March. Any deviation, good or bad, is likely to play out on the margins.
So let’s mark Arizona, in pencil, for the second weekend of the NCAAs — but not the third.
To the power rankings …
1. Houston (22-4/14-1)
Results: won at Arizona 62-58 and Arizona State 80-65
Best win: at Arizona
Worst loss: vs. San Diego State
NET ranking: 3
Comment: Have to think the Cougars would be several spots higher than No. 8 on the overall seed list — but probably not in the top four — if the NCAA selection committee offered its early reveal this weekend instead of last Saturday, prior to the Cougars’ desert sweep. They are No. 3 in both the NET and KenPom and No. 5 in Wins Above Bubble.
2. Arizona (18-8/12-3)
Results: lost to Houston 62-58, won at Baylor 74-67
Best win: vs. Iowa State
Worst loss: at Kansas State
NET ranking: 9
Comment: The Wildcats are No. 23 in adjusted offensive efficiency (points per possession), according to KenPom. That’s impressive, until you compare it to their end-of-season ranking in Tommy Lloyd’s first three years: They were no worse than 11th. So there has been slippage — not much, but some.
3. Iowa State (21-5/11-4)
Results: beat Cincinnati 81-70 and Colorado 79-65
Best win: at Texas Tech
Worst loss: vs. Kansas State
NET ranking: 8
Comment: The Saturday showdown at Houston could be the game of the year in the Big 12 that doesn’t involve a half-court, game-tying buzzer-beater. And there will be no rematch in Ames — the teams only play once, unless they collide in the Big 12 tournament.
4. Texas Tech (20-6/11-4)
Results: beat ASU 111-106 (OT), won at Oklahoma State 93-55, lost at TCU 69-66
Best win: at Houston
Worst loss: vs. UCF
NET ranking: 7
Comment: We cannot help but think the Red Raiders’ pillowy soft non-conference schedule (No. 319, per KenPom) could be an issue on Selection Weekend — the difference, for instance, between being the last No. 2 seed and the first No. 3, or the last No. 3 and the first No. 4. When the committee plunges into the so-called scrubbing process, any eyesore can prove costly.
5. Baylor (16-10/8-7)
Results: beat West Virginia 74-71, lost to Arizona 74-67
Best win: vs. St. John’s
Worst loss: vs. TCU
NET ranking: 30
Comment: The Bears are a more dangerous NCAA Tournament team than their record suggests because they have an elite talent (freshman guard VJ Edgecombe) capable of manufacturing points in any situation. And the NCAAs are all about offense.
6. Brigham Young (18-8/9-6)
Results: beat Kansas State 80-65 and Kansas 91-57
Best win: at Providence
Worst loss: vs. West Virginia
NET ranking: 31
Comment: Discuss amongst yourselves: The Cougars’ demolition of KU marked the first time in 75 years that the Jayhawks have lost by at least 30 points to an unranked opponent. And it just might be BYU’s most notable victory since Danny Ainge beat Notre Dame in the Sweet 16 back in 1981.
7. Kansas (17-9/8-7)
Results: lost at Utah 74-67 and Brigham Young 91-67
Best win: vs. Duke
Worst loss: at Brigham Young
NET ranking: 21
Comment: According to OptaStats, the Jayhawks were the only current Division I school that “had never suffered a 30-point loss to an unranked team in the AP Poll era.” Which began in 1949.
8. TCU (15-11/8-7)
Results: beat Oklahoma State 73-72, won at ASU 74-70, beat Texas Tech 69-66
Best win: vs. Texas Tech
Worst loss: vs. Utah
NET ranking: 72
Comment: The Horned Frogs are finding their grove at just the right time, with five wins in the past six games. They could be a tough out for one of the high seeds in the Big 12 tournament.
9. Kansas State (13-13/7-8)
Results: lost at Brigham Young 80-65 and Utah 74-69
Best win: at Iowa State
Worst loss: vs. Liberty
NET ranking: 76
Comment: In case you weren’t following closely, make note: The Kansas schools were 0-4 in Utah.
10. West Virginia (15-10/6-8)
Results: lost at Baylor 74-71
Best win: vs. Arizona
Worst loss: vs. Arizona State
NET ranking: 44
Comment: It’s not yet time to completely reassess the significance of West Virginia’s victory at Kansas, but we are approaching that point with blazing speed.
11. Utah (15-11/7-8)
Results: beat Kansas 74-67 and Kansas State 74-69
Best win: vs. Kansas
Worst loss: vs. Iowa
NET ranking: 71
Comment: Has Craig Smith done enough to secure his return for Year Five? If not, he’s mighty close. Don’t forget: The Utes were picked last in the Big 12 preseason poll.
12. Cincinnati (15-10/5-9)
Results: lost at Iowa State 81-70
Best win: vs. Dayton
Worst loss: at Kansas State
NET ranking: 45
Comment: NET position suggests the Bearcats are on the NCAA bubble, but nothing else about their resume indicates there’s a realistic path into the Madness. They need to get very hot very soon.
13. UCF (13-12/4-10)
Results: lost at Colorado 76-63
Best win: vs. Texas A&M
Worst loss: vs. Cincinnati
NET ranking: 75
Comment: That’s six consecutive losses and eight in the past nine games for Johnny Dawkins, who is 11-20 in Big 12 play since the Knights joined the conference. The seat heat is rising in Orlando.
14. Oklahoma State (12-13/4-10)
Results: lost at TCU 73-72 and to Texas Tech 93-55
Best win: vs. Arizona State
Worst loss: vs. FAU
NET ranking: 107
Comment: The Cowboys are doing everything possible to secure the bottom spot in the Hotline’s power rankings, but they aren’t quite bad enough.
15. Arizona State (12-14/3-12)
Results: lost at Texas Tech 111-106 (OT), to TCU 74-70 and to Houston 80-65
Best win: vs. Saint Mary’s
Worst loss: vs. UCF
NET ranking: 66
Comment: From our vantage point, the bell is preparing to toll in Tempe.
16. Colorado (10-16/1-14)
Results: beat UCF 76-63, lost at Iowa State 79-65
Best win: vs. UConn
Worst loss: vs. Arizona State
NET ranking: 99
Comment: As poorly as the Buffaloes have performed, they are 7-0 against Quadrant III and IV opponents — no bad losses, in other words. It’s an all-time funky resume.
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