All hope is not lost for a reunion between the Minnesota Vikings and Sam Darnold.
Benjamin Solak of ESPN outlined on Tuesday, January 28, how Darnold’s path could lead back to Minneapolis via a long-term contract.
“If Darnold’s market indeed comes in near $40 million per year, the Vikings will likely get priced out as they address other positions. But if Darnold wants to stay in the O’Connell offense and Minnesota can get him at a lower figure, don’t be surprised to see it happen,” Solak wrote. “Plus, Darnold’s contract would become a valuable trade asset if [J.J.] McCarthy is great — and a valuable escape hatch if McCarthy is shaky. This approach is far more preferable than the franchise tag, which would hit the Vikings for $41 million against the 2025 cap and be far more difficult to trade.”
Sam Darnold Holds Most of the Cards Heading Into Free Agency
GettyQuarterback Sam Darnold of the Minnesota Vikings.
The underlying context to the situation is that Darnold has significant leverage heading into the offseason for a handful of reasons.
First, the NFL draft is weak under center with just two quarterbacks possessing first-round grades: Shedeur Sanders of Colorado and Cam Ward of Miami.
Second, Darnold is the top free agent in another weak class full of older veterans coming off shaky seasons: Russell Wilson of the Pittsburgh Steelers and Andy Dalton of the Carolina Panthers, for example. That won’t materially change if the Atlanta Falcons and New York Jets cut Kirk Cousins and Aaron Rodgers, respectively.
Finally, there are several teams in the market for a new quarterback this offseason and the supply can’t come close to matching the demand. Solak on Tuesday noted the Las Vegas Raiders, Pittsburgh Steelers and New York Giants as suitors for Darnold, and that field could easily increase based on how the draft plays out and what the Jets decide to do under center.
Vikings Face Major Questions on Sam Darnold, J.J. McCarthy
GettyQuarterback J.J. McCarthy of the Minnesota Vikings.
Ultimately, it’s all a value judgement for Minnesota.
They have to ask themselves several questions: How good is McCarthy? How good is Darnold? How much money is Darnold worth? What can we trade either player for? Does it make sense to spend the majority of our 2025 salary cap space on a good, but not great, QB like Darnold when we have an unproven 22-year-old in McCarthy waiting in the wings?
“Smart teams don’t let quarterbacks who just performed well over a 14-win season leave the building easily,” Solak continued. “General manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah, who comes from an analytics background, primed coach Kevin O’Connell on the very possibility of Darnold playing his way into a multiyear contract before the 2024 season even began.”
In the end, holding onto as many assets at the quarterback position as possible is probably the right play for the Vikings. Because despite what Darnold costs, his value should bring back more to Minnesota either by the way he plays for the team — allowing the Vikings to trade McCarthy for draft capital — or what Minnesota can get back for Darnold in a trade.
But, as Solak noted, there is a limit to how much money the Vikings will want to invest. The team must address what is likely to be significant turnover in the secondary, and the interior of the offensive line could also use work.
The Vikings have nearly $64 million in cap space as of Wednesday, but just three draft picks in April to revamp the roster around whichever quarterback they commit to long-term.
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