The forecast for the Big 12 next season is clear: delicious, riveting, inexorable chaos.
We saw that unfold last season, when the team picked last (Arizona State) finished first and the team picked first (Utah) finished 13th, and it should be the case again.
The following projections will be updated after spring practice, when rosters take their final form.
At that point, the Hotline will take mayhem into account and order the teams against our better judgment.
For now, we are leaning into common sense.
1. Brigham Young
No team was treated more unfairly by the College Football Playoff selection committee than the Cougars, who should have been in the middle of the at-large discussion. That won’t be a problem next season when they win the conference title and receive the automatic berth. BYU has a strong core of returnees led by quarterback Jake Retzlaff, but the biggest advantage is psychological: The players will be ravenous to right a wrong — and good enough to do it — without the emotional burden that comes with trying to repeat.
2. Texas Tech
We won’t compare Texas Tech 2025 to Arizona State 2024 because expectations are higher for the former than the latter. But if you’re looking for a contender from just off the pace, consider Texas Tech, which was 6-3 in conference play and not part of the end-of-season tiebreaker process. Coach Joey McGuire’s program has loaded up in the transfer portal — at last check, his incoming class was No. 3 nationally in the 247Sports rankings — but will lean into veteran quarterback Behren Morton. A better comparison might be found in the ACC: The Red Raiders could be the Big 12’s equivalent of SMU in ’24, only without the first-year membership situation.
3. Arizona State
The Sun Devils experienced a dream season (with a nightmare ending) and should be the popular pick to repeat as conference champions given the return of quarterback Sam Leavitt, receiver Jordyn Tyson and so many core contributors. But ASU won’t have the element of surprise in its favor and must navigate expectations that did not exist last fall. Just because the two-deep returns largely intact doesn’t mean it’s the same team. The dynamics will be different, and challenging.
4. Iowa State
It wouldn’t be a Big 12 offseason without the Cyclones projected to finish lower than should be the case. (Guilty as charged!) With a veteran quarterback (Rocco Becht) and a stout running game, Iowa State is well positioned to do Iowa State things: win just enough to stay in the race without attracting too much attention. But to actually claim the conference title, the Cyclones had best improve on a run defense that ranked 110th nationally last year, allowing 188.4 yards per game.
5. Utah
The Hotline undoubtedly has a more optimistic view of Utah’s prospects than most others in the prognosticating business. Our sentiment is based, in part, on watching New Mexico’s offense on numerous occasions last season and believing playcaller Jason Beck and quarterback Devon Dampier will thrive together in Salt Lake City, thus supercharging Utah’s offense. At the same time, the defense should be its usual slab of granite and give the Utes a chance to contend for the conference title. After all, the Big 12 is, to a greater extent than its Power Four peers, the league of opportunity.
6. Kansas State
It’s an oversimplification to suggest 2025 stands as a now-or-never season for Avery Johnson, but there’s no reason KSU’s junior should not emerge as one of the most dynamic dual-threat quarterbacks in the country. More broadly, it’s a big season for Chris Klieman’s program, which has steadily lost ground within the conference. After winning the Big 12 with a 7-2 mark in 2022, the Wildcats went 6-3 in 2023 and then 5-4 last season. Another step backward and we’ll start wondering if Klieman can ever recapture the magic from early in his tenure.
7. Kansas
This projection could prove too high if the Jayhawks perform as they did in the first half of 2024 or too low if they play like they did down the stretch. And that’s exactly our intent with KU’s positioning: Split the difference. Will quarterback Jalon Daniels morph into one of the Big 12’s best in his final season? Or will his erratic play continue? Key point on the schedule: The Jayhawks don’t play Brigham Young or Arizona State, and they get Iowa State at home.
8. Colorado
We cannot name a team that relied more heavily on two players than CU leaned on quarterback Shedeur Sanders and receiver/cornerback Travis Hunter. After all, the Buffaloes essentially dispensed with the running game (65.2 yards per game last season) and adopted an Air Raid mentality. There are two options for replacing Sanders: Liberty transfer Kaidon Salter or blue-chip recruit Julian Lewis. (Either way, some regression seems likely.) Replacing Hunter will be even more difficult given his impact on both sides of scrimmage. Year 3 under Deion Sanders should result in a bowl berth but not, in our view, anything close to a conference title.
9. Baylor
Coach Dave Aranda began 2024 on the hottest of seats and ended the season with eight wins and the last laugh. But we aren’t ready to declare Baylor a contender next fall, not just yet. There are several unknowns, including the viability of second-year playcaller Jake Spavital’s offense now that opponents will have gotten a full dose of the Air Raid hybrid and had a chance to adjust. Two scheduling misses (Iowa State and Brigham Young) should help.
10. TCU
The Horned Frogs dropped from the radar after the surprising one-point home loss to UCF in Week 3 and never really reappeared despite their strong finish and 6-3 record in conference play. The return of quarterback Josh Hoover gives TCU the chance to carry success into 2025. But our skepticism starts with the Big 12’s schedule matrix, which calls for the Horned Frogs to play Arizona State, Brigham Young and Kansas State on the road in 2025.
11. Houston
Looking for a sleeper? The Cougars just might qualify. No, we don’t envision them contending seriously for the conference title. But based on coach Willie Fritz’s track record, they might over-perform in his second year relative to expectations. Much depends on quarterback Connor Weigman, the Texas A&M transfer who could benefit from a fresh start — and better luck with injuries.
12. West Virginia
We have reached the point in the projections where roster flaws exceed strengths and teams are heavily reliant on newcomers — not only first-year players but also new head coaches and coordinators. Nowhere is that more true than in Morgantown, where coach Rich Rodriguez returns to his alma mater to revitalize the program he led two decades ago. The man can scheme plays as well as anyone, but we aren’t convinced a breakthrough awaits in Year 1.
13. Arizona
Speaking of staff changes: Wildcats coach Brent Brennan overhauled his coordinator positions after a gruesome first season. If offensive playcaller Seth Doege conjures a better performance from quarterback Noah Fifita and new defensive coordinator Danny Gonzalez maximizes his personnel, the Wildcats have a chance to improve enough to save Brennan’s job. (Yes, roster attrition has been substantial this winter, but that might be for the best.) We’re hesitant to attach a victory total to Brennan’s salvation, but 6-6 is a decent baseline.
14. Oklahoma State
For all the uncertainty associated with these early projections, the Hotline is fairly confident that one of the Big 12’s two great disappointments in 2024 will experience a resurgence next fall. In our view, Utah seems more likely to produce a turnaround than Oklahoma State. If that forecast becomes reality, it might be time to wonder about Mike Gundy’s future in Stillwater.
15. UCF
The same scenario unfolding at West Virginia is playing out in Orlando, where the Knights dipped into their past to upgrade the present. Will Scott Frost recreate the success from his first tenure with UCF after failing to rehabilitate Nebraska? (He has not coached in college since 2022, which feels like a lifetime ago given the rate of change.) As is the case with so many other storylines in the Big 12, Frost 2.0 will be fascinating to watch.
16. Cincinnati
Just as a three- or four-team tie atop the Big 12 feels likely, so, too, does gridlock in the cellar. The Bearcats were not an easy pick for last place with quarterback Brendan Sorsby set to return. But their late-2024 nosedive, combined with the lack of high-level talent at the skill positions, makes coach Scott Satterfield’s team a likely candidate.
*** Previously published content looking ahead to the 2025 season
Predictions for college sports (on the field and off)The Hot 25: behind-the-scenes influencersOur ridiculously early Top 25 rankingsHeisman contenders: Is Utah’s Devon Dampier a dark horse?Coaches on the hot seat: Hello, Brent Brennan
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