Championship weekend is upon us after a wild and entertaining year in the NFL. On the AFC side of things, we have a dream matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Buffalo Bills.
Sunday for the Chiefs will mark their seventh straight AFC Championship Game appearance with a 4-2 record straight up in those last six games, leading to three Super Bowl wins.
Kansas City is vying to be the first team in NFL history to win three straight Super Bowls. Before the Chiefs get the chance to make history, theyâll have to win on Sunday night. Meanwhile, Josh Allen and the Bills have an opportunity to get some revenge on Mahomes and KC from their 2021 loss. So what are the best bets that we should be making for this showdown? Lets dive right in…
- Spread: Kansas City (-1.5)
- Total: 47.5
- Moneyline: Kansas City (-125) Buffalo (+105)
Betting Pick Against The Spread: Kansas City (-1.5)Â
The Chiefs are currently the slight betting favorite over the Bills with the line being 1.5. The Chiefs (-1.5) are currently priced at (-115) at DraftKings Sportsbook. So it is certainly worth noting that for a slight odds difference, betting the Chiefs moneyline at (-125) and avoiding giving up a point and a half is something to consider here. Lets dive into the matchup and analysis as we make the case for betting the Chiefs to get back to their third straight Super Bowl.
The Bills have allowed 29.3 points per game to opponents that finished in the top 12 by DVOA. Last week in the divisonal round win against the Ravens, the Bills gave up 25 points to the Ravens despite turning over the Ravens three times in the game. Buffaloâs run defense is prone to give up yards up the middle which is where the Chiefs spend most of their time, and then in the air the Bills have had trouble all sesaon long limiting short passes and throws over the middle. As most know, Mahomes at this stage has been excellent getting the ball out quick with short completions and then attacking the middle of the field.
Betting Pick for Game Total 47.5: UNDER 47.5Â
At a glance, you see Allen the likely MVP of the NFL this season on one side and Mahomes, Travis Kelce and star power on the other and say: this will be a shootout! Despite plenty of star power and two of best QBs on the planet being featured in this one, I am not anticipating a ton of points being scored. With the public flying in on the over, this is a good time to fade the majority here. Kansas City is not as “high octane” as they once were. With everything on the line for both teams, in a cold chess match? This game has the makings of a 21-20 type of a final score. If you are looking to bet this game total, the UNDER 47.5 is the play to make.
Betting Pick for Player Props: Travis Kelce Anytime TD Scorer (+140)
First of all, despite my urges to tie in as many Taylor Swift references as possible into this paragraph I resisted and stayed away. So that is something I am proud of. Ok moving on. The decline of Kelce seemed visible for the first time in his career this year throughout the entire regular season. But, Kelce is going to go down as the greatest to ever play the Tight End position for a reason. Playoff success. Kelce in the divisonal round win over the Houston Texans hauled in 7 catches for 117 yards and 1 TD. Since 2019 Kelce has played in 17 playoff games. In those 17 games Kelce has been able to haul in 18 touchdowns. This is one of those bets I feel great about making and will have zero regrets about it. Take Kelce to find a blank space in the endzone again in this one. Darn it, I did it.
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