Minnesota Vikings quarterback J.J. McCarthy is healthy and possibly on his way to the starting job in 2025, but there’s a lot that can go wrong between late January and early September.
The Vikings have yet to make clear the direction they will head with players like Sam Darnold — who just came off a career year and will be the top free agent QB on the market if Minnesota doesn’t extend him before mid-March — or Daniel Jones, who never took a snap for the Vikings but chose the franchise for a reason.
Minnesota may have seriously considered trading McCarthy for a draft haul if Darnold had come through down the stretch and the team was playing in the NFC championship game this weekend. However, it appears most likely now that McCarthy will be back with the Vikings for his age-22 campaign, potentially with a backup and/or competitor for the starting job in the form of a new veteran.
But not everyone around the NFL believes that’s a home run scenario for Minnesota given McCarthy’s brief and problematic history since entering the league just nine months ago.
“It’s likely back to the starting line with a quarterback who has played zero NFL snaps and [is] coming off a big knee injury,” ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler wrote on January 21, quoting an NFL personnel evaluator. “I like [McCarthy], but I have no idea what they are getting at this point.”
Vikings Predicted to Regress Next Year Due to Uncertainty Around J.J. McCarthy
GettyMinnesota Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell.
Fowler went on to project that the Vikings will regress in 2025.
He connected part of that prediction to the unknowns at quarterback — those involving McCarthy specifically — while the rest Fowler tied to potential roster turnover.
“The Vikings project in league circles as a team that’s here to stay thanks to coach Kevin O’Connell’s leadership and talent on both sides of the ball. But changes are looming in Minnesota,” Fowler wrote. “Five top free agents — [Darnold], left tackle Cam Robinson, safety Camryn Bynum, running back Aaron Jones and corner Byron Murphy Jr. — are threats to leave unless the Vikings stop them.”
Vikings Face Significant Roster Turnover This Offseason
GettyRunning back Aaron Jones of the Minnesota Vikings.
The only way to “stop them” is to pay them via contract extensions before free agency arrives in mid-March. However, the personnel situation isn’t necessarily as dire as it might appear.
First, the Vikings have a projected $64.1 million in available salary cap space in 2025, which ranks eighth in the league.
Secondly, the team already has viable replacements for Darnold and Robinson in McCarthy and Christian Darrisaw, the latter of whom has been Minnesota’s starting left tackle for several seasons and is among the best in the league at the position when healthy. He suffered a season-ending injury against the Los Angeles Rams in Week 8.
Jones is a potential concern, but the Vikings could select a top-end running back with the No. 24 overall pick in the draft. Dane Brugler of The Athletic on January 15 mocked Kaleb Johnson of Iowa to Minnesota.
“[Ashton] Jeanty deservedly will command all of the Round 1 running back talk, but Johnson is worthy of landing in the top 32, as well,” Brugler wrote. “The Iowa back would be a great fit for Minnesota’s outside-zone scheme, and his impact would help open the passing game.”
The secondary is unfortunately going to a be a problem no matter what, as six of the top seven defensive backs — including Murphy and Bynum — will be free agents in less than two months if they don’t extend with the Vikings before then.
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