The pundits aren’t pulling any punches.
The wise guys at FanDuel put the Rockies’ win total for 2025 at 59 1/2.
In ESPN’s “Way-too-early 2025 rankings,” the Rockies are 29th out of 30 major league teams.
“Colorado is coming off consecutive 100-loss seasons and, given the strength of the rest of the division, might be hard-pressed to avoid a third straight such season,” ESPN opines.
Ouch. Hard shot to the solar plexus.
FanGraphs’ Dan Szymborski, who actually spends time dissecting the Rockies (a rarity for a national media guy), says, “Things might slowly be getting better.”
But for his ZiPS Projections, Szymborski also wrote: “You can’t get out of a hole until you stop digging. That said, if these projections are accurate, there is still an awful lot to do to turn a better process into better results. It takes a lot of time to restore that ’79 Corvette that’s been rusting in your garage for 25 years.”
Szymborski concluded: “The Rockies are very likely to finish in last place in the NL West again, but it wouldn’t be crazy to see the team approach 70 wins.”
The Athletic ranked Colorado 28th at the end of 2024. With spring training on the horizon, The Athletic now ranks the Rockies 29th.
“The Rockies seem to believe they’re closer to contending than, shall we say, the collective baseball consciousness,” The Athletic opinioned. “By declining to trade third baseman Ryan McMahon and starter Cal Quantrill at the deadline, they signaled their intention to keep the core — such as it is — intact. There are reasons to like the Rockies roster. Ezequiel Tovar, Brenton Doyle and Michael Toglia turned heads in 2024.”
But, The Athletic concluded: “The Rockies are light on veteran hitters and desperate for more pitching. Playing in a brutal division makes their climb toward relevancy like scaling a cliffside. They have yet to get off the ground.”
MLB.com, always gentle with its coverage, ranks the Rockies 28th, a not-so-quantum leap from No. 29.
“It’s always steady-as-she-goes in Denver, for better or worse,” MLB.com opined. “This team looks like it did last year, and kind of like it looked the year before.
Talk about your Nattering Nabobs of Negativism.
Not that I can blame them. The Rockies did close to nothing during the offseason. Status quo is the franchise’s motto.
However, in the spirit of New Year’s resolutions, allow me to present some counterpoints and throw a little positive light on the Kid Rox.
The Athletic’s “desperate for more pitching” line doesn’t quite ring true. Right-hander Ryan Feltner is ready to bust out, and veteran lefties Kyle Freeland and Austin Gomber give the Rockies a chance to win when they take the mound.
I don’t know what to expect from right-handers German Marquez and Antonio Senzatela as they return from injuries. Counting on them as frontline starters would be a mistake, but at least they provide some quality depth in the rotation.
A quartet of prospects — righties Chase Dollander and Gabriel Hughes and lefties Carson Palmquist and Sean Sullivan — will get their chance to make the big-league team out of spring training. Dollander could make that happen. It would be great to see the Rockies push the envelope for a change.
I expect the Rockies to add a veteran reliever to a bullpen that was the worst in the majors last season in both ERA (5.41) and WHIP (1.55). Still, there is promise in some of the young guns already in place: right-handers Angel Chivilli, Seth Halvorsen, Victor Vodnik, Jeff Criswell and Jaden Hill, and lefty Luis Peralta, have the makings of a hard-throwing, effective ‘pen. Right-hander Tyler Kinley, who turns 34 on Jan. 31, provides a veteran presence and will compete for the closer’s job or as a set-up man.
The bottom line: Colorado’s bullpen won’t be the disaster area it’s been for several seasons.
My most significant question mark is the offense. Unless a young player has a breakout season, I don’t see the Rockies making substantial strides. Consider: In 2024, the Rockies’ .242 average, .304 on-base percentage and .704 OPS were all the lowest in franchise history, while their 1,617 strikeouts were the most in club history.
Colorado needs Nolan Jones to bounce back from injuries and a bruised ego. Kris Bryant must stay healthy and show flashes of his glory days. Is a .275 average, 20 home runs and 400 plate appearances too much to ask for a $27 million salary?
The Rockies also need a young gun, be it Jordan Beck or a prospect like Zac Veen or Yanquiel Fernández, to show some firepower.
And it would behoove the Rockies to cut down on the K’s. They finished the 2024 season with a 50.9 swing percentage and a 31.8 chase percentage, both the second-highest marks behind the woeful Marlins.
My early January prognostication: A 75-win season is possible. But let me get back to you during spring training.
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