Broncos (10-7) at Bills (13-4)
When: Sunday, 11:00 a.m. MT
Where: Highmark Stadium
Radio/TV: 850 AM, 94.1 FM/CBS
Broncos-Bills series: Denver is 17-22-1 in 40 regular-season games, and 0-1 in the postseason dating back to 1960; the Broncos won 24-22 in the last meeting, on Nov. 13, 2023 at home, and have lost three of the last four games against Buffalo.
In the spotlight
The identity of Denver’s defense will be tested on Sunday.
Defensive coordinator Vance Joseph has relied heavily on man coverage this season. He’s put trust in cornerbacks Pat Surtain II, Riley Moss and Ja’Quan McMillian to contain wide receivers on the back end, providing the front seven time to pressure the quarterback.
Denver used man coverage at the fourth-highest rate in the league (39.5%), according to NFL’s Next Gen Stats. The Broncos, who set a franchise record with 63 sacks in the regular season, also utilized man blitzes at the second-highest rate (24.5%).
Even though that game plan has been successful, Bills quarterback Josh Allen is a different animal. And that’s why this will be one of the most intriguing matchups of Wild Card weekend.
During the regular season, Allen was fifth in passing yards (1,202), second in touchdowns (22) and second in expected points added per drop back (0.27) against man coverage, according to Next Gen Stats. In the last two years, he has thrown for 2,601 yards, 40 touchdowns and eight interceptions when facing man defenses.
Part of the reason for this success is simple: Allen’s elite athleticism allows him to go through his progressions quickly, and if none are open, take off and run with defenders’ backs to him in coverage.
It’s a deadly combination that Joseph will have to account for.
The Broncos’ man coverage and pass rush go hand-in-hand. Surtain allowed the seventh-lowest passer rating in man coverage (78.1) with a minimum of 180 snaps, according to Next Gen Stats. McMillian was ranked third at 72.3.
That coverage ability afforded the front seven the chance to wreak havoc on quarterbacks. The Broncos were second in pressures (101) and third in sacks (23) in man coverage, according to Next Gen Stats.
When Denver drifted away from its bread-and-butter, the team struggled.
Denver’s 41-10 loss to Baltimore forced Joseph to coach outside of his comfort zone to account for Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry’s rushing ability. He relied on more zone coverage, and the Broncos defense was picked apart. Jackson faced zone on 82.6% of his drop backs, completing 13 for 15 passes for 260 yards and two touchdowns, according to Next Gen Stats. Jackson only saw man coverage on 17.4% of drop backs.
In the three games Moss missed due to a knee injury, the Broncos played in man on 30.3% of drop backs and 69.7% in zone. During that stretch, Denver gave 317.7 passing yards per game and recorded just seven sacks.
Against Buffalo, the Broncos’ defensive success will come down to sticking to what they do best. That means a lot of man coverage and a lot of reliance on Denver’s pass rushers to get home against Allen.
However, there is another wrinkle to this matchup that poses another threat: the Bills’ running backs. James Cook recorded 32 catches for 258 yards and a couple of touchdowns on 38 targets. Meanwhile, Ty Johnson totaled 284 yards and three touchdowns on 18 catches.
Both players will challenge Denver’s inside linebackers, who have been inconsistent in coverage. Broncos inside linebacker Justin Strnad gave up 39 catches for 450 yards and a passer rating of 104.2, while Cody Barton allowed 34 catches for 395 yards, a touchdown and passer rating of 95.3 while recording two interceptions.
Who has the edge?
When Broncos run
Bo Nix rushed for a team-high 47 yards on seven carries against the Chiefs in Week 18. It was the fifth time the rookie quarterback led Denver in rushing during his rookie season. Second-year running back Jaleel McLaughlin totaled 315 yards on 76 outside run attempts, according to Next Gen Stats. The Bills allowed nine touchdowns and five yards per carry on outside runs. Edge: Bills
When Broncos pass
Bo Nix rides into the postseason with a ton of momentum. He threw for 803 yards, nine touchdowns and an interception while completing 79% of his pass attempts in his last three games. Wide receiver Marvin Mims Jr. had four touchdown receptions — tied for the most in the league during that span. Buffalo gave up 10 touchdown passes and a passer rating of 102.7 in the last four weeks. Edge: Even
When Bills run
James Cook had a success rate (percentage of carries resulting in positive EPA) of 42.5% — 10th-best in the league with a minimum of 200 carries, according to Next Gen Stats. He recorded 1,000-plus yards for the second straight year. Defensive end Zach Allen was Denver’s best run defender this season. He collected 20 run stuffs — tackles resulting in no gain or loss. A year ago, Denver struggled to slow down Cook. Of course, much has changed since. Edge: Bills
When Bills pass
Buffalo doesn’t have a 1,000-yard receiver, but Allen has been solid at spreading the ball around. The Bills have nine players with at least 250 receiving yards. Denver will have to be careful of the Bills’ tight end duo, Dalton Kincaid (44 catches, 448 yards, two touchdowns) and Dawson Knox (22 catches, 311 yards and a touchdown). Pat Surtain II, the top cornerback in the NFL, finally gets to play on the big stage. He had four interceptions and 11 passes defended this season and didn’t allow more than 50 yards in a game once. Edge: Bills
Special teams
Broncos kicker Wil Lutz converted 13 straight field goals to close out the regular season. Pro Bowl returner Marvin Mims Jr. had the second-most punt return yards in the league (408), five yards shy of first-place finisher and Lions returner Kalif Raymond (413). The Bills allowed 9.3 yards per punt return. Edge: Broncos
Coaching
Bills offensive coordinator Joe Brady’s name is being mentioned in coaching rumors after orchestrating one of the most dangerous offenses in the league. The Bills scored at least 30 points in a franchise-record 12 games in 2024, one shy of the NFL record of 13 set by the 2013 Broncos, according to Next Gen Stats. Broncos coordinator Vance Joseph, who transformed Denver’s defense in a year, also set himself up for a head coaching gig. The chess match between those two will be the determining factor of Sunday’s postseason contest. Edge: Bills
Tale of the tape
| Broncos | Bills | |
|---|---|---|
| Total offense | 324.6 (19th) | 359.1 (10th) |
| Rush offense | 112.2 (16th) | 131.2 (9th) |
| Pass offense | 212.4 (20th) | 227.9 (9th) |
| Points per game | 25.0 (10th) | 30.9 (2nd) |
| Total defense | 317.1 (7th) | 341.5 (17th) |
| Run defense | 96.4 (3rd) | 115.5 (12th) |
| Pass defense | 220.7 (19th) | 226.1 (24th) |
| Points allowed | 18.3 (3rd) | 21.6 (11th) |
(Click here to view chart on mobile.)
By the numbers
7: Games with at least four pressures by Broncos OLB Nik Bonitto.
304: Receiving yards by Broncos WR Courtland Sutton on go routes.
37: Sacks recorded by Broncos on four-man rushes.
16: Touchdown passes thrown by Bills QB Josh Allen against blitzes.
1: Sacks allowed by Broncos RG Quinn Meinerz.
Bet on it
Audric Estime over 23.5 rushing yards: Estime’s production hasn’t been eye-popping. However, he rushed for at least 30 yards in two of Denver’s final three games. The Broncos have relied on Estime and McLaughlin in the ground game due to Javonte Williams’ lack of success. Estime will not have a dominant game against Buffalo but he will total at least 25 yards.
Josh Allen 2+ touchdown passes (-110): Allen has put up impressive numbers in the postseason. He’s thrown for at least two touchdown passes in six of 10 career postseason games. Allen is an MVP candidate for a reason. With a strong offensive line protecting him, Allen will throw for a couple of touchdowns in the Wild Card matchup.
Post predictions
Parker Gabriel, beat writer: Bills 27, Broncos 17
The Broncos won in Buffalo last year and they’ve got a team that believes it can go toe-to-toe with anybody. That’s certainly possible Sunday, but it’s just tough to bet against Josh Allen, at home, in the elements at this time of year. A successful run comes to an end and sets the stage for a bright future in Denver.
Ryan McFadden, beat writer: Bills 28, Broncos 20
The Broncos will get off to a good start and have many wondering if an upset is possible. However, they will fall flat down the stretch. Denver won’t achieve the outcome it hoped for but the franchise will have something to build on going into the offseason.
Troy Renck, columnist: Bills 27, Broncos 20
If Russ can beat the Bills, of course Bo Nix can do it. The Broncos will benefit from the recent success at Buffalo last season. They will benefit from their inspirational rookie quarterback and their sack-happy defense. All of these reasons will be why they are in the game, but not why they win the game. Sunday will be a learning experience that will put them the Broncos in position to win playoff games next season.
Sean Keeler, columnist: Broncos 24, Bills 23
Upside? The football gods hate Buffalo, so anything’s possible. Downside? Josh Allen and Joe Brady, on paper, take Vance Joseph out of his comfort zone. What the Broncos have done so well to get here (man coverage, wicked pass rush) actually plays into Allen’s strengths: Extending plays and dumping the rock off to a bevy of quick backs or tight ends. Remember how VJ and company handled Baltimore? That was ugly. Hopefully, this one won’t be.
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