Colorado State (8-4) vs. Miami of Ohio (8-5)
When/where: 2:30 p.m. Saturday/Arizona Stadium, Tucson, Ariz.
TV/Radio: CW Network/Colorado State Sports Network
BetMGM Line: CSU +3, 42.5 over/under
Series History: CSU 0-2; RedHawks won last matchup in 2010, 31-10 in Ohio
Bowl History: 6-11, lost four in a row, last win was in 2013 New Mexico Bowl, 48-45 over Washington State
Last time Rams were here
Colorado State’s last bowl appearance was the 2017 New Mexico Bowl under coach Mike Bobo. After CSU went 7-5 in the regular season, the Rams took on Marshall at Dreamstyle Stadium in Albuquerque. The Thundering Herd beat them, 31-28, as CSU was undone by an ugly second quarter. Marshall had two long TDs in that frame — a 76-yard pass and a 68-yard run — to take a 21-14 lead into halftime. Marshall then outscored CSU 10-0 in the third, with Tyler King’s 90-yard TD run the dagger early in the quarter. Passing and rushing TDs by QB Nick Stevens in the fourth tightened the score.
Notable transfer portal losses
Wideout Caleb Goodie, who stepped up as CSU’s top aerial threat after Tory Horton’s season-ending injury in October, entered the portal Dec. 1 and committed to Cincinnati. Goodie had 21 catches for 436 yards and 4 TDs. CSU’s other top wideout, Jamari Person, entered the portal the same day. Person had 36 catches for 386 and a touchdown. Linebacker Buom Jock, who led the team with 100 tackles, entered the portal Dec. 9, as did defensive end Nuer Gatkuoth.
Four storylines
CSU’s run game: The ability to consistently run the football, a marked shift in approach from the first two seasons of Jay Norvell’s tenure, paved the way to the postseason for CSU. Avery Morrow led CSU with 956 yards and nine touchdowns. He needs 44 yards and a score to achieve his goal of 1,000/10. Justin Marshall (662 yards, four TDs) has also been impactful as CSU’s averaged 170.6 rush yards per game. That tandem presents a challenge for Miami’s run defense, which ranked third in the MAC with 136.8 yards allowed per game.
BFN’s top targets: With Goodie and Person in the portal, CSU quarterback Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi needs other guys to step up against a Miami secondary that allowed just nine passing TDs all season. Armani Winfield is likely first up. Fellow wideouts Jordan Ross and Dane Olson (who had 140 yards vs. Utah State) will get more opportunities, too, as will tight end Vince Brown II. BFN’s job will be a little easier with top Miami cornerback Raion Strader off to Auburn.
New guy at defensive controls: Defensive coordinator Freddie Banks is out, and linebackers coach Adam Pilapil will serve as defensive play-caller in Tucson. Despite the Rams finishing third in the Mountain West in scoring defense this season, there was a disconnect between Norvell and Banks. That puts the onus on Pilapil to come up with a plan to contain Miami’s best weapon, 1,000-yard rusher Keyon Mozee, after the RedHawks lost top wideouts Javon Tracy and Reggie Virgil to the portal.
CSU’s defensive trio: Miami quarterback Brett Gabbert (younger brother of ex-Missouri star Blaine Gabbert) is missing his top two wideouts, giving CSU’s defensive captains a chance to assert themselves. Linebacker Chase Wilson (Ralston Valley), free safety Henry Blackburn (Fairview) and strong safety Jack Howell (Valor Christian) all turned in solid seasons, even as Howell missed a couple of games to injury. If they all play well, CSU’s chances go way up.
Predictions
Kyle Newman, sportswriter: CSU 28, Miami 27
The Rams emerge victorious thanks to the feature of their team that’s driven their success this season: the run game, with Avery Morrow leading the way. The RedHawks got exposed in the MAC Championship game when Ohio ran wild for 232 yards at 5.0 yards per carry, and the experienced CSU offensive line takes advantage of this while the Rams defense cinches up in the fourth quarter.
Sean Keeler, sports columnist: CSU 24, Miami 20
Idaho’s got the Potato Bowl, but Tucson’s got the Portal Bowl, where the Rammies and RedHawks saw their wide receiver rooms dinged hard by winter transfers. The difference? CSU’s already used to improvising with multiple bodies in the passing game and already used to leaning on its tailbacks to carry them over the line in a pinch. Defense and the run game always travel well — but they travel especially well in December. Party on, Snoop!
Matt Schubert, sports editor: CSU 24, Miami 23
Trying to pick bowl games in the transfer portal era is a fool’s errand. With so many key contributors gone by mid-December, these games are more a test of program depth than anything else. Which makes this game a mini-referendum on what Jay Norvell has built in his three seasons in FoCo. Do the Rams have enough talent in their two-deep to take down a similarly-pillaged MAC program in bowl game? The answer here is yes … barely.
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