The Warriors are going to Houston for a snowball-effect game: The result greatly determines what the next two weeks look like for Golden State, one way or another.
If Golden State beats Houston, the Warriors will head to Las Vegas for the NBA Cup semifinals against the winner of Tuesday night’s Thunder-Mavericks game. If they lose tonight, they’ll return home to the Chase Center for the loser of that matchup.
Those outcomes create extremely different paths.
From a scheduling standpoint, the Warriors would probably be better off losing to Houston. If they advance in the Cup, they’ll lose a home game — finishing the season with 40 home games — and embark on what could be a 12-day road trip if they make the NBA Cup championship to extend their season to 83 games.
Warriors players have consistently made clear their desire to win the NBA Cup and its associated prize money; every NBA Cup champion player is awarded over $500,000. Playing high-octane games so early in the season could benefit some of their younger players, as well.
Asked if he’d liken Wednesday’s game to a playoff game in Houston, Steph Curry drew a distinction: “Not really, but there’s still an appreciation for a moment, like a build-up for a game,” Curry said.
“We all want to get to Vegas, for sure. So we’ll give everything we’ve got to it. But a little different context than the playoffs.”
Here’s what to watch for in the Warriors’ matchup with Houston.
Serious ownage
The last time the Warriors lost to the Rockets was before the COVID-19 pandemic.
It was so long ago that Russell Westbrook and James Harden were still on the Rockets. Marquese Chriss started for the Warriors that game, and Alen Smailagic played 12 minutes off the bench.
The Warriors have won all 15 matchups since that Feb. 2, 2020 game.
“Sometimes the NBA is funny like that,” said Steve Kerr, who called the trend “random.”
Although this Rockets team — currently third in the West — is different from many of the squads Golden State has handled over the past few seasons, the Warriors have already beaten Houston twice this year. Such an extended losing streak could have psychological effects on the Rockets when they face the Warriors.
A Houston X-factor
Tari Eason has missed the last two games in concussion protocol, including Houston’s most recent game against the Warriors.
Eason’s absence was one of the reasons that allowed Jonathan Kuminga to erupt for 33 points, matching his career-high. Without Eason, the Rockets have less defensive flexibility and have to rely more on center Alperen Sengun.
Sengun’s a rising star, but the Warriors are a tough matchup for him. In their first meeting, Houston erased a 31-point deficit by putting Eason and Amen Thompson — athletic, tenacious defenders — on the court at the same time, benching Sengun.
Eason got cleared from concussion protocol, clearing the way for him to return Wednesday. With him back, the Rockets will once again have the versatility that raises their ceiling.
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The Warriors’ new-look starters
Golden State pressed pause on moving Draymond Green to the bench for Kuminga against the Timberwolves because of Andrew Wiggins’ ankle injury; he’s listed as questionable for Wednesday’s game.
If Wiggins returns, the Warriors are expected to start Steph Curry, Brandin Podziemski, Wiggins, Kuminga and Kevon Looney.
That would create a bench unit centered around Green’s playmaking and Buddy Hield’s gravity, with at least one of Curry and Podziemski on the court at all times. Green could close halves and spend more time at center against less physical backups.
A playoff-like environment would be an interesting test case to see which lineup combinations Kerr prioritizes.
Stopping Jalen Green
As he did in the second half of last year, guard Jalen Green is starting to get hot. He’s averaging 24.6 points over his past five games, shooting 47.4% from the field and 44.1% from deep.
Green is a dynamic athlete and three-level scorer when he’s rolling. Two weeks ago, he dropped 41 points on 12-for-20 shooting (plus 13-of-14 free throws) in a win over Philadelphia.
Gary Payton II was excellent defending Anthony Edwards on Sunday night and could get another tough assignment in Green.
Handling ball pressure
One reason Eason and Thompson were so effective in Houston’s comeback to force overtime in the first meeting is the constant ball pressure they applied to the Warriors.
In the worst moments of Golden State’s near-collapse, the Warriors had trouble getting the ball over halfcourt. Surprisingly, other teams have failed to replicate the success of Houston’s tenacious pressure.
Staggering Curry and Podziemski’s minutes should help mitigate some of Houston’s aggressive defensive tactics. But even then, taking care of the ball will be pivotal. Houston forces a league-average number of turnovers per game, but has the second-rated defense in the league. Golden State is 2-3 on the year when committing at least 18 turnovers.