You’d be forgiven for forgetting that Syria is in the midst of a civil war. The battle between President Bashar al-Assad’s government and Islamist rebel forces had receded from the Middle East spotlight, giving way to the war in Gaza and other conflicts in the region — at least until rebel forces this month shockingly took Aleppo, the country’s second-largest city.
The “stunning” attack on Aleppo is a “direct consequence of new wars that have erupted outside Syria’s borders,” said The Wall Street Journal. Assad withstood the rebel challenge with assistance — often brutal — from Russia, Iran and Lebanon-based Hezbollah. But Russia is now preoccupied with its own war in Ukraine, and Iran and Hezbollah have been worn down by fighting with Israel. For Assad’s backers, “Syria is a sideshow at best,” said the Journal. That gave the rebel group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HST) an opening to attack.
It also creates more turbulence in a turbulent region. The new round of fighting “raised the prospect of another violent front reopening in the Middle East,” said The Associated Press. One particular concern is that Russia and Turkey, “each with its own interests to protect in Syria,” will be drawn back into the war, and into a battle with each other. The renewed civil war has the “potential to be really quite, quite consequential,” said Charles Lister, an analyst with the Middle East Institute.
What did the commentators say?
The early rebel victories “could reshape the regional balance of power in ways directly affecting the U.S.,” Andrew Latham, professor of international relations at Macalester College, said in The Hill. The fall of Assad would be a “devastating blow to Iran’s influence in the region.” It would also undermine Moscow’s “credibility as a reliable ally” in the region. Those developments would be a “welcome strategic gain for America,” Latham said. “The stakes are high.”
“Don’t write off Assad,” Jeremy Bowen said at BBC News. His regime has a “core of genuine support” among Syrians who see him as the “least bad option” compared to jihadist groups that “dominate the rebellion.” But other anti-Assad groups could rise up, and “his regime will once again be in mortal danger.” In any case, the Aleppo attack is another sign that the region’s post-Oct. 7 turmoil is not receding, Bowen said. Instead, we have yet “more proof that the war gripping the Middle East is escalating, not subsiding.”
What next?
“Assad’s grip on power seems tenuous,” Steven A. Cook said at the Council on Foreign Relations. But it’s difficult to get a clear picture of what’s happening on the ground. There are no international journalists in the country, making the reports we do get “likely to be rife with misinformation and disinformation.” The U.S. has 900 troops in Syria on a mission to contain the Islamic State, but President-elect Donald Trump may try (again) to withdraw them when he takes office. Another critical issue surrounds Russia’s reaction. Vladimir Putin will want to defend his country’s position in Syria, Cook said, “but it is unclear yet whether that includes defending Assad.”