The blueprint for Caleb Williams’ second half will be staring at him from the opposite sideline Sunday.
At the midway point of his first full season as the starter last year, Packers quarterback Jordan Love ranked near the bottom of the league in passing statistics — 33rd in completion percentage, 26th in passer rating — on a team with a losing record looking up at the playoffs. The pressure of replacing Aaron Rodgers made his struggles a national story.
Then he turned it around. Something clicked. Quarterback growth isn’t linear, and Love soon looked like one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL.
From Weeks 10-18 last season, he ranked second in the league in passing yards, sixth in completion percentage and fourth in passer rating. Only one quarterback threw for more touchdowns.
The Packers went 6-2 in their last eight games, including a season finale win against the Bears to clinch a playoff berth. Love, who was in the final year of his contract, signed a four-year, $220 million contract extension that tied the record for the most money ever given to an NFL player.
That sort of improvement in the second half of the season sounds like a Ryan Poles fever dream. Were Williams, the No. 1 overall pick, to improve the way Love did in the second half, he’d provide hope at the end of what looks like another lost season. A gigantic leap — perhaps paired with an unlikely playoff berth — might be the only formula that saves Matt Eberflus’ job.
Not that the Bears would make the comparison to their rivals out loud. Asked Thursday if Love’s 2023 second half was an example that the Bears could point out to Williams, quarterbacks coach Kerry Joseph smiled.
“I’m pointing to Caleb Williams and the Chicago Bears,” Joseph said. “What can we do to make sure we’ve got him going in the right direction. That’s our focus. … Because he’s different. He’s not Jordan.”
Williams’ performance in his rookie season is similar to what Love did in the first half last year, though. Through 10 weeks, he ranks 23rd in passing yards, 28th in passer rating and 32nd in completion percentage.
The similarities between the two though, has its limits:
Love spent three seasons sitting behind Rodgers before being named the starter at age 25. Williams, who turns 23 on Monday, was named the starter before he ever played a snap for the team.
Williams has since been subsumed by the usual circus at Halas Hall. The Bears are riding a three-game losing streak that began with the Commanders running a Hail Mary while Tyrique Stevenson was busy waving at fans. The Bears have averaged nine points per game since. The offense felt so broken — it averaged 9 points per game the last three games — that offensive coordinator Shane Waldron was fired Tuesday and replaced by pass game coordinator Thomas Brown.
For the Bears, the hiring was a Hail Mary — pardon the triggering flashback — to try to get Williams back on track.
“I think he does a lot well,” Brown said..” I think when it comes to his natural ability from throwing the football, is clear and obvious.”
His performance, though, has been lacking.
Williams and his teammates had been frustrated with Waldron and the offense for months. The first glimpse came after Week 3, when 40-year-old tight end Marcedes Lewis wanted the coordinator to coach the players harder. Receiver Keenan Allen said Wednesday that Waldron was too nice, dating back to training camp.
“I’ve gotten texts or calls or people coming up to me, with this situation that just happened, and saying ‘We got your back, we’re with you’ … and ‘Let’s go.’” Williams said. “That kind of mindset and attitude has been what it’s been this past couple days.”
The Packers’ structure and culture has been calm by comparison. Matt LaFleur, the Packers’ head coach since 2019, ,has been the only play-caller Love has ever known.
Finally, there’s the difference in play style. Williams has thrown one interception since Sept. 23, while Love leads the league with 10 interceptions and two pick-sixes.
That’s the baffling addendum to Love’s second-half surge last year — he’s struggled thus far this season. Playing 6 ½ games due to injury, Love is 20th in passer rating and 22nd in passing yards this season.
“I’m trying to get back to that level [from the second half last year] and take that bar even higher and play even better,” Love told reporters this week. “There’s things throughout the first half of the season that you want to focus on, clean up and get better at. I’m always trying to improve my game and definitely want to be better than I was the first half of the season going forward.”
Love and Williams have never met. Asked whether he wants to develop a rivalry with the Bears quarterback, he demurred.
“The rivalry of the Packers-Bears and the history of this rivalry is something that’s a little more special than that,” he said.
In evaluating Love last week, Packers GM Brian Gutekunst said something that should give Bears fans hope.
“I’ve always thought it’s 20-26 games before guys really settle into what they’re doing,” he said.
Game 10 comes Sunday. It’s unlike any Williams has played in during his NFL career — after a week in which he could say the same.
“It’s an important game for us, not only because it’s divisional but obviously it’s the Packers,” he said. “We have to handle it like that — and I have to handle the situation I’m in.”