Donald Trump’s relationship with the tech industry has oscillated over the years, and now that he is on his way to a second term, Big Tech is bracing itself for what that could mean for their businesses over the next four years.
After he became president for the first time, the tech industry “mobilized quickly to resist some of his anti-liberal policies,” Bloomberg said. But this time around, “things in the Valley feel different.” Eight years after the 2016 election, it is “unclear what appetite for resistance remains.” In fact, on the morning after the election, a “procession of tech CEOs” all lined up to “digitally kiss the ring.” They posted “unnervingly similar messages” congratulating him and “pledging to work together to boost American innovation.” The cautious messaging greatly contrasts the response to his first term, signaling a shift in Silicon Valley.
Elon Musk and crypto could win big
No matter who they voted for, “nearly everyone in tech will feel the consequences of a second Trump term,” said Kevin Roose at The New York Times. His first term was “wild and unpredictable,” creating a chaotic environment that “even the biggest tech companies struggled to navigate.” It is likely that “more chaos and uncertainty lie ahead.” Of all the leaders in Big Tech, no one stands to benefit more from Trump’s win than Elon Musk, “who will become the most powerful businessman in America (if he wasn’t already).” Trump has suggested he might make him the head of a new department of government efficiency that would cut the federal workforce, putting Musk in the “enviable position of getting to pick who regulates his companies,” including Tesla and SpaceX. It is also safe to assume that the “crypto industry will get most of what it wants in Washington,” said Roose, beginning with the ouster of Gary Gensler, the head of the Securities and Exchange Commission, who has become a “villain among crypto companies for his tough regulation efforts.”
Though he previously rejected Bitcoin as a “scam,” Trump seemed to embrace crypto on the 2024 campaign trail. While speaking at the Bitcoin 2024 conference, he promised to “cement the U.S. as the foremost Bitcoin mining powerhouse, establish a national Bitcoin stockpile, and appoint a Bitcoin advisory council if reelected,” said Wired. Trump has also promised to commute the sentence of Ross Ulbricht, creator of darknet marketplace Silk Road, who is currently serving life in prison. The severity of Ulbricht’s sentence is “widely considered to be disproportionate by Bitcoiners, who have long called for his release.”
Meta, Google, and AI regulation might take a hit
Trump may have publicly cozied up to Musk, but other tech leaders are “in his crosshairs,” said Business Insider. While campaigning, Trump “threatened retribution against some tech companies, including jailing Meta’s chief, Mark Zuckerberg.” In an August post on Truth Social, he threatened to imprison “election fraudsters” if he was elected in November, name-checking the Meta CEO. Still, it is “unclear whether Trump will follow through on his threats.” Google was also heavily criticized by Trump throughout his campaign. In another Truth Social post, he accused the platform of being biased in favor of his opponent. He threatened to use the Justice Department to prosecute Google “at the maximum levels” during his second term.
The effects of a second Trump administration “will be acutely felt in the AI industry,” which has “largely rallied against federal policymaking,” Kyle Wiggers said at TechCrunch. While campaigning, Trump repeatedly said he plans to dismantle Biden’s artificial intelligence policy framework and has “aligned himself with kingmakers who’ve sharply criticized all but the lightest-touch regulations.” Trump also promised policies that would “support AI development rooted in free speech and human flourishing,” though he did not detail what that would look like.
On top of deregulation, “Trump’s trade policies could significantly affect AI development,” Benj Edwards said at Ars Technica. His proposed 10 percent tariff on U.S. imports and a 60 percent tariff on Chinese products might “impact the AI industry’s access to necessary technology and capital,” potentially “interrupting the supply of GPUs that are necessary to accelerate AI training and inference tasks.” Trump “rarely discussed AI during his campaign,” but his “other platform positions could influence the industry.” His plans to restrict H-1B visas and expand oil and gas development may “affect AI companies’ ability to recruit talent and access computing resources.”