In a high-stakes contest that’s still too close to call, Democratic political newcomer George Whitesides chipped away at U.S. Rep. Mike Garcia’s slim lead on Wednesday, Nov. 6, in the race for California’s 27th Congressional District seat.
Garcia had 51.05% of the vote while Whitesides had 48.95%, based on the latest semi-final results released by the L.A. County registrar’s office late Wednesday afternoon. It’s unclear how many more ballots are left to be counted for this race, but fewer than 5,000 votes separated the two candidates.
The registrar’s office won’t finish tabulating votes for days and has until Dec. 3 to certify the results of the election.
LIVE ELECTION RESULTS: See a chart of the latest vote counts
The closeness of this race isn’t surprising. The race for California’s 27th Congressional District was considered a toss-up heading into Election Day.
It’s been closely followed not only by voters in northern Los Angeles County, including the high desert communities of Lancaster, Palmdale and Santa Clarita. Political observers nationwide are tracking this race as results come in because it’s a battleground district whose outcome could determine whether Democrats or Republicans control the House.
“We have always known that the path to taking back the majority of the U.S. House runs through CA-27 – and that couldn’t be more true today. With control of the House hanging in the balance, our race is more important than ever,” Emma Harris, campaign manager for Whitesides, said in a statement Wednesday.
She said it could be days before a winner is declared.
“There are still tens of thousands of uncounted ballots in our district,” Harris said. “George (Whitesides) enjoyed a strong advantage with the vote by mail (VBM) ballots that were released last night, and we know there are thousands more to come over the next week. … In the meantime, George and our team are working hard to ensure that every vote is counted.”
Shortly after polls closed Tuesday night, Garcia, the Republican incumbent, provided a statement, saying he was “very optimistic” and “incredibly thankful for the overwhelming support” from the community.
“We’ve run a campaign focused on addressing the real issues impacting California families – from tackling inflation to keeping our neighborhoods safe and protecting the Social Security and Medicare benefits our seniors rely on,” Garcia stated.
“I’m proud of the message we shared and the dedicated work of our volunteers and supporters who made it possible,” he said. “I’m eager to continue fighting for the security our district deserves.”
Data analyst Paul Mitchell said Wednesday that the race is “far from over.”
He predicts that Whitesides will continue to chip away at Garcia’s lead and that the gap between the two will only narrow with each subsequent vote tally update. The question is who will prevail in the end.
Mitchell said Democrats had a 13.5% advantage in the early vote-by-mail ballots while Republicans had a 26.5% advantage in the second batch of election night results that came in, which reflected in-person voting. What’s left to count — the late mail-in ballots — will skew younger and more Democratic, Mitchell predicts.
“I would bet that in every update we get from the county, that George Whitesides will get closer (to Garcia),” Mitchell said. “From here on out, I think the (results go) in one direction – what we call a ‘blue shift.’”
“The question is whether or not Garcia will hang on” to win election, Mitchell said.
Once a conservative stronghold, the demographics of California’s 27th Congressional District have shifted over the years, with more voters now registered as Democrats.
Just over 40% of voters in the district are registered Democrats compared to 30% who are registered Republicans. Another 21.5% are registered as “no party preference.” With their voter registration advantage, Democrats are hoping their candidate will prevail in this hotly contested race.
The nonpartisan Cook Political Report had this race rated as “Republican toss-up.”
And in another indication of just how competitive this race was expected to be, a September poll by USC, Cal State Long Beach and Cal Poly Pomona had the two candidates neck-and-neck, with Whitesides leading Garcia by just 1 percentage point (44% to 43%) among likely voters. When undecided voters were pressed to pick a candidate and their leanings were factored in, the breakdown became 48% for Whitesides and 46% for Garcia. The survey had a 4.3% margin of error.
Garcia, 48, was a fighter pilot in the Navy who later worked for U.S. defense contractor Raytheon. He won his first U.S. Senate race in a special election in 2020 after the seat was vacated by Democratic Rep. Katie Hill.
Whitesides, 50, served as NASA’s chief of staff, then as CEO of Virgin Galactic before co-founding an organization to combat wildfires.
Garcia’s opponents cast him as a conservative MAGA supporter. He voted for Republican former President Donald Trump in 2016 and 2020 and previously said he planned to vote for Trump again in this year’s presidential election.
In a recent interview, Garcia said voters in his district don’t care what letter comes after a candidate’s name but their position on issues.
This election is “not a referendum on party politics,” Garcia said. “It’s a referendum on security. People just want security. That comes in the form of national security, economic security, border security, neighborhood security, school security.”
“This is a referendum on doing what’s right,” he added.
Whitesides, meanwhile, framed the election in part as a fight over women’s reproductive rights and health issues.
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