The expanded playoff is arguably the most consequential change in the history of college football — one the sport “has needed for a long time,” College Football Playoff executive director Rich Clark said last week.
But the move from four teams to 12 includes complicated changes to the selection and seeding processes.
Here is an explanation in eight steps:
1. The CFP has ballooned from two rounds of play to four.
It begins Dec. 20-21 with four opening-round games played on the campus of the higher seed (i.e., No. 5 vs. No. 12, No. 6 vs. No. 11, etc.).
The quarterfinals will be played on New Year’s Eve and New Year’s Day and hosted by the Fiesta, Rose, Peach and Sugar Bowls. The semifinals are Jan. 9-10 at the Orange and Cotton Bowls. The championship game is Jan. 20 in Atlanta.
2. As has been the case for the CFP’s decade-long existence, a 13-person selection committee will release its Top 25 rankings each Tuesday for the remainder of the regular season. The only rankings that truly matter are Dec. 8, following the conference championship games.
The 12 teams participating in the CFP come from one of two categories: The five highest-ranked conference champions receive automatic bids, while the next seven highest-ranked teams receive at-large spots.
The highest-ranked team from the Group of Five conferences (American, Conference USA, Mid-American, Mountain West and Sun Belt) is guaranteed a bid.
Notre Dame and the two Pac-12 teams, Washington State and Oregon State, are not eligible for automatic bids and must qualify through the at-large pool.
3. The committee’s job is to “pick the best teams,” Clark explained on a webinar for college football media. “They aren’t trying to pick the most deserving.”
The committee will take the following factors into consideration when compiling its rankings: win-loss record; schedule strength; head-to-head results; outcomes against common opponents; and the so-called eye test.
The strength-of-schedule ratings will be provided to the committee by SportSource Analytics and take into account the outcome, location and score differential (which is capped).
Teams with two and perhaps even three losses will make the field.
“The beauty of this is a loss early in the season may not completely derail a team,” Clark said.
4. The four highest-ranked conference champions will receive the top-four seeds (in the order of their ranking) and the accompanying bye into the quarterfinals.
The lowest-ranked of the five conference champions will be seeded according to its ranking and participate in the opening round games matching the No. 5 through No. 12 seeds.
5. The Group of Five team will be seeded according to its ranking.
If it’s ranked 12th or lower, it will receive the No. 12 seed.
However, if the Group of Five team is ranked higher than a Power Four champion, it will receive a top-four seed and the opening-round bye.
6. The committee won’t manipulate its ranking to avoid opening round rematches of regular-season games.
“If (rematches) happen naturally,” Clark said, “they just happen.”
As a result, it’s possible for teams to meet three times: once during the regular season; once in the conference championship; and once in the playoff.
7. The top-four seeds will be placed in quarterfinal bowl games affiliated with their conferences.
For example, Clark said, the Big Ten champion would be slotted into the Rose Bowl and the SEC champ into the Sugar Bowl.
This is due to existing contracts between conference and bowls for the 2024-25 seasons.
8. Perhaps the most confusing element of the new playoff format is this: A team’s ranking won’t necessarily match its seed.
In the past, the top-four teams in the committee’s final rankings were seeded accordingly. But with expansion, the four highest-ranked conference champions receive the top-four seeds.
Because the rankings are based on performance, it’s likely that at least one conference champion will be ranked below a non-champion.
Put another way: A two-loss SEC runner-up could be ranked ahead of the ACC champion — perhaps by several spots — but the ACC winner would be seeded above the SEC’s runner up.
“They want the conference championships to mean something,” Clark said.
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