At every level of the organization, the Nuggets are acutely aware of the scrutiny they’ve faced this offseason regarding their shortage of 3-point shooting.
Special assistant to the head coach Andrew Munson even sent his boss a myth-busting text this summer. Most of Denver’s best single-game offensive ratings in 2023-24, he informed Michael Malone, had very little to do with exorbitant numbers of 3-point attempts. The more accurate correlation involved points in the paint. Scoring 60 at the rim was a better indicator of efficiency than prioritizing 3s.
“I think more is made about our 3-point shooting, and the volume of our shooting, outside than inside,” Malone told The Denver Post this month in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. “I mean, we were NBA champions two seasons ago. We had 57 wins last year. And don’t forget (our) bread and butter: We are a dominant paint team. We’ve been a top-five offense for many, many years now. But we averaged the same number of 3-point attempts the championship season and last year. With that being said, we’re not trying to put a cap on how many 3s that we shoot.”
Particularly when it comes to Michael Porter Jr., who was Denver’s second-best starter this preseason. After blaming himself for the Nuggets’ second-round playoff loss, he showed up to training camp with a few extra pounds of muscle, hoping to find an equilibrium between his established spot-up prowess and an ever-improving dribble penetration game.
It’s just that Denver’s roster moves this summer might require more of the former from him.
“I think we’ve got a lot of players that, they like to get to the midrange, they like to get to the rim,” Porter said. “So we know in this day in age, teams score a lot of points when they get some 3s up. So I don’t have my partner in crime, KCP. He was kind of a volume shooter last year. So we don’t have any really volume 3-point shooters. I think Jamal (Murray), he’ll shoot some 3s, but he likes to get to the middy. Joker should probably take a couple more per game. But I know it’s gonna be up to me and Julian (Strawther) to really be the volume 3-point shooters.”
Malone has walked a fine line this preseason with his messaging related to 3-point volume, where the Nuggets ranked last in the NBA in 2023-24. On one hand, he has suggested how beneficial it could be if Nikola Jokic, Murray and Porter each attempt one more per game this season. “Nobody’s anti-shooting more 3s,” as he put it recently. But he has also scoffed at the notion that “we have to diversify our offense” in order to win another championship. Munson’s text helped soothe any anxiety.
“Just kind of keeping things in perspective,” Malone said. “Muns has a really good feel. He knows who I am. He’s very studious.”
As for the statistics: Denver had 14 games last season with an offensive rating of 132 or higher, according to Basketball Reference — a top-end sample size covering more than one-sixth of the season. The Nuggets won all 14 of those games. They averaged 15.1 baskets from 3-point range, sizably more than their season average of 11.7. But their attempts? Only 33 per game, which wasn’t much higher than their season average (31.2) and would still rank 23rd in the league. Chucking for sheer volume did not correspond with Denver’s best offensive performances. Low-volume, high-efficiency games did.
How about the other way around? The Nuggets attempted 37 or more 3s in 14 games. In that sample of 14, they had a record of just 8-6. There was a dramatic gap between success and failure in these games, which included three of Denver’s five best offensive ratings for the season, but also seven of the team’s 17 worst offensive ratings. It all averaged out to 117.4, slightly below the Nuggets’ overall rating of 117.8.
That evidence also backs up the philosophy general manager Calvin Booth shared on media day.
“If you’re better than somebody — right? Like, Nikola Jokic is better than everybody in the world — why do the same thing they can do and make it random?” Booth said. “If we shoot the same number of 3s as the worst team in the league, and they make more than us that night, they might beat us. Nikola Jokic should not lose games like that. … The way he plays the game or manages the game is in a way where we don’t get a lot of 3-point shots.”
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However, even Booth has acknowledged the precarious balance that can exist with three low-percentage marksmen in a nine-man rotation. The Nuggets don’t necessarily need to force themselves into far more 3-point attempts in 2024-25, but it would probably behoove them to stay close to that 31.2 average.
Perhaps more than ever, it’ll be Porter’s job to make sure they’re in the ballpark.
“I definitely don’t want to shoot all 3s, but with the makeup we have for our starting lineup,” he said, “I know we need to get up 3s. Some of that’ll be on me.”