In 1981, historian Allan Lichtman and the late Russian scientist Vladimir Keilis-Borok developed a model for predicting U.S. presidential elections. “The 13 Keys to the White House” was based on the results of elections from Abraham Lincoln to Ronald Reagan. It has correctly predicted the outcome of every presidential election ever since, with the exception of the 2000 Bush-Gore race.
The “13 Keys” are true/false statements designed to tease out whether the political party currently holding the White House is governing well enough to convince voters to renew the party’s lease. An answer of “true” favors the incumbent party. If six or more of the 13 keys turn “false,” the incumbent party loses.
Ready to try it? Here are the “13 Keys to the White House”:
1. Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections. Score that FALSE. After the 2022 midterm elections Democrats held only 213 seats, fewer than the 235 they held after the 2018 midterms.
2. Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination. Joe Biden won without a contest after the party changed the rules to prevent anyone else from winning delegates. Then Biden was forced out, Harris grabbed the campaign funds, California delegates endorsed her on a conference call and all challengers were blocked. That sounds contested to me. I’ll call this key FALSE.
3. Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president. That’s now FALSE.
4. Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign. Newly independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., is still on the ballot in some states, including California, although he has suspended his campaign and endorsed Donald Trump. Third-party candidates Jill Stein and Cornel West are not polling at significant numbers. This key is TRUE.
5. Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign. While the National Bureau of Economic Research has not officially declared the U.S. to be in a recession, public sentiment may say otherwise. The NBC News poll released this month asked registered voters whether “the Biden administration policies are helping you and your family, hurting you and your family, or are they not making much of a difference either way?” The results: 45% “hurting,” 25% “helping.” In the same poll, 44% said the Trump administration’s policies “helped” their family while only 31% said they “hurt.” But it’s not an official recession, so let’s call this key TRUE.
6. Long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms. “Real per capita” means the economic growth percentage is adjusted for inflation and population. According to data from the UN, real per capita economic growth in the U.S. during the Biden administration was 5.5% in 2021 and 1.5% in 2022 for a two-year average of 3.5%. Between 2017 and 2020, the Trump administration put up growth numbers of 1.7, 2.2, 1.8 and -2.7 (the pandemic shutdown year), an average of 0.75%. During Barack Obama’s second term, 2013-2016, real per capita economic growth was 1.2, 1.7, 2.1 and 1.0, for an average of 1.5%. Because Biden’s first year in office coincided with a burst of economic growth as the nation went from lockdown-zero back to something more normal, this key is TRUE, and the score is tied at three.
7. Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy. Biden immediately reversed the nation’s energy and border policies, so this is TRUE.
8. Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term. We’ve seen protest encampments on college campuses, marches on freeways, takeovers of intersections, robberies that look like riots and parents raging at school board members. Two out of every three families hide the carving knives at Thanksgiving and the third calls off the dinner. I’m scoring this FALSE. The score is four to four.
9. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal. Investigations by three House committees found that the Biden family collected many millions of dollars from foreign entities for no work. Also, a special counsel investigated Biden for illegally taking boxes of classified material with him after his vice presidency but declined to bring charges because no jury would convict “an elderly man with a poor memory.” Fawning media coverage painted over the taint, so score this one TRUE.
10. Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs. FALSE. The catastrophic Afghanistan pullout alone makes this key false. Tied at five.
11. Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs. Can you think of one? I’d say this key is FALSE. That’s six, enough to lose the White House.
12. Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero. Kamala Harris? FALSE.
13. Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero. The American Heritage Dictionary says charisma is “a rare personal quality attributed to leaders who arouse fervent popular devotion and enthusiasm.” And he starred in a hit TV show for 14 years. This key is FALSE.
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My final score has eight keys false and five true, predicting a Trump victory in November.
“13 Keys” co-creator Allan Lichtman reached a different conclusion. Lichtman, who wrote a book calling for Donald Trump to be impeached three months into his presidency, said in early July that the keys predicted Biden’s re-election. After Biden stepped down, Lichtman said the keys predicted the election of Kamala Harris.
How? According to Lichtman, it’s TRUE that there was no serious contest for the Democratic nomination, TRUE that the Biden administration had a major foreign policy success (Ukraine), TRUE that there’s no sustained social unrest (because Kamala Harris “dampened” it), and TRUE that Donald Trump is not charismatic.
However your own scorecard turned out, don’t forget to vote. And watch out for ballot measures that are trying to grab the keys to your bank account.
Write Susan@SusanShelley.com and follow her on Twitter @Susan_Shelley