Through four games, Caleb Williams is not C.J. Stroud, but he’s not Bryce Young, either — which is pretty good for a Bears rookie quarterback.
Williams’ 61.7% completion rate through four NFL starts is significantly better than predecessors Justin Fields (53.6%) and Mitch Trubisky (47.5%). His 787 passing yards is far better than Fields (562) and Trubisky (512).
His 5.6 yards per attempt is lower than Fields (6.7) and Trubisky (6.4). But he’s thrown more touchdown passes (three) than Fields (two) or Trubisky (two). His 16 sacks are the same as Fields and more than Trubisky (11). Williams’ 72.0 passer rating is comparable to Fields (72.6) and better than Trubisky (66.2).
For what it’s worth, Williams’ closest statistical Bears rookie quarterback comp through four starts is … Tyson Bagent, who had a 73.0 passer rating, 65.1% completion rate, 776 passing yards, three touchdowns and 6.0 yards per attempt in four starts last season.
The biggest difference? Williams has been sacked 16 times for 124 yards. Bagent was sacked four times for 25 yards. It’s the same story — if you put just enough of Tyson Bagent in a Bears quarterback-of-the-future, you’d actually have a quarterback of the future.
Be that as it may, through four games Williams is still on track to get there. He’s still the best quarterback prospect the Bears have ever had.
It’s a little disconcerting that Williams already has been part of a leadership council intervention with offensive coordinator Shane Waldron. Or that he has a disconnect with DJ Moore — a year after Fields instantly connected with Moore. Or that the No. 1 pick in the draft is being hailed for his checkdowns in Week 5. Or that Williams is in an offense where 264 total yards against a Rams team allowing 425.7 yards a game is progress. Or that his offensive linemen are already beat up and/or worse under Waldron than they were under Luke Getsy.
Williams isn’t the problem. His 106.6 passer rating with 157 passing yards, one touchdown and no turnovers in a 24-18 victory over the Rams on Sunday was modest but significant progress. But it’s the same old issue — why is developing a quarterback at Halas Hall always at the pace of a stadium project?
Last year, Stroud was an immediate success as a rookie starter with the Texans — with no better supporting cast on paper than Williams has now. This year, Commanders rookie Jayden Daniels has been an instant hit. The No. 2 overall pick has a 107.4 passer rating that ranks third in the NFL. He’s completing an incredible 82.1% of his passes (87 of 106) — an NFL record for any quarterback through four games. His 8.6 yards per attempt is fourth in the NFL.
He’s doing it with no more support than Williams has with the Bears. The Commanders have three new starting linemen, including left tackle Cornelius Lucas, a journeyman who played for the Bears in 2019. After Terry McLaurin, Daniels’ wide receivers are Olamide Zaccheaus, Noah Brown, rookie Luke McCaffrey and Dyami Brown.
And he’s doing it in a new offense under newly hired coordinator Kliff Kingsbury, which might be the most painful part for Bears fans. Kingsbury interviewed for the Bears’ offensive coordinator job that went to Waldron. In four games under Kingsbury, the Commanders are third in scoring (they were 25th last season), sixth in yards (24th) and third in rushing (27th).
The Bears? They’ve got shovels in the ground on Caleb Williams. And the plans are impressive. The project is under budget. The only question is whether it will be completed on schedule.
2. It would be cool if there were an alternate universe where you could see what would happen if the Bears hired Kingsbury and the Commanders hired Waldron. Or if the Bears drafted Daniels and the Commanders drafted Williams.
It’s uncanny how the Bears always seem to be behind the league, regardless of the coordinator or the quarterback. Under Waldron, the Bears are tied for 27th in the NFL in offensive points scored (62), 30th in total yards (253.0), 29th in rushing (87.3) and 26th in passing (165.8). Would they be any better under Kingsbury? Or with Daniels? It sure seems like it’s more about the coordinator than the quarterback.
3. When punter Tory Taylor was drafted in the fourth round this year, Williams welcomed him with a funny line: “You’re not going to punt too much here.” Taylor actually has punted 20 times — tied for fourth most in the NFL, but was a true weapon against the Rams, with three punts inside the 10-yard line, including a 66-yarder in the fourth quarter.
But, in an interesting twist, it’s actually Daniels’ punter who hasn’t been needed. With Kingsbury’s offense producing 13 touchdowns and 12 field goal attempts in 31 drives, Tress Way has punted just four times in four games. That’s the fewest in the first four games of a season in the Super Bowl era, per football-reference.com.
4. Waldron’s offense showed signs of progress against the Rams. The Bears’ 12-play, 74-yard touchdown drive that gave them a 17-9 lead in the third quarter was their first drive of longer than five plays this season without a negative play — no penalties, sacks, lost yardage or turnover.
They followed that with a five-play, 70-yard drive capped by D’Andre Swift’s 36-yard touchdown run that had one hiccup — tight end Cole Kmet’s false start. Kmet’s penalty ended a season-high 15 snaps without a negative play. But he quickly atoned with a 22-yard reception for a first down, and a key block that helped spring Swift for the touchdown.
5. The Bears don’t face the Lions until Thanksgiving, but that might be a good thing. Lions quarterback Jared Goff completed 18 of 18 passes in a 42-29 victory over the Seahawks on Monday night — the most attempts without an incompletion in NFL history. He’s completed 36 of 41 passes in his last two games (87.8%) — and is averaging 12.0 yards per attempt, so it’s not all easy checkdowns.
Trubisky holds the Bears’ mark for highest percentage with 18 or or more passes — 86.2% (25 of 29 for 246 yards) against the 49ers at Soldier Field in 2018. It only produced 14 points in a 14-9 victory, but that’s the Bears way on offense. When Walter Payton broke the all-time single-game rushing record with 275 yards against the Vikings in 1977, the Bears won 10-7.
Goff, by the way, had two of his three lowest passer ratings against the Bears last season — 68.3 in a 31-26 victory at Ford Field; and 54.6 in a 28-13 loss at Soldier Field, when he completed 20 of 35 passes (57.1%).
6. Though the Bears’ offense found a groove in the second half against the Rams, the offensive line continues to be problematic. Teven Jenkins played just 11 snaps because of a bruised rib, Braxton Jones has regressed and while Darnell Wright is gamely playing through a back injury, he’s not the player he was last year.
Continuity can’t save them. Jenkins’ injury ended a season-long streak of 79 consecutive snaps for the combination of Jones, Jenkins, Coleman Shelton, Matt Pryor and Wright. Because of rotations and injuries, the Bears offensive line starters have played every snap in one of four games this season and just 12 of 38 games under Matt Eberflus.
7. The Bears have won seven consecutive games at Soldier Field — the longest active home winning streak in the NFL, believe it or not.
Then again, the opponents the Bears have beaten in the streak are a combined 34-58 (.370), with the Lions (12-5 last season) the only winning team.
8. Quick Hits: The Bears have allowed an average of 16.8 points in their last 10 games (21 or fewer in each one) — the best in the NFL in that span. … Keenan Allen has seven receptions for 48 yards — the fewest in back-to-back starts for Allen in his career. He averaged 95.6 yards per game with the Chargers last season. … Justin Fields had a career-high 367 total yards against the Colts. His best with the Bears was 360 in a 31-30 loss to the Broncos last year (335 passing, 25 rushing). … The Bears have 17 pre-snap penalties this season — second-most in the NFL behind the Browns (18). … The Panthers have five defensive pass interference penalties (third most in the NFL) for 72 yards (fourth).
9. Ex-Bears Player of the Week: Falcons wide receiver Darnell Mooney had three receptions for 56 yards and drew a 30-yard pass interference penalty that set up Younghoe Koo’s game-winning 58-yard field goal with two seconds left in a 26-24 victory over the Saints.
Mooney has 15 receptions for 225 yards and a touchdown this season. He’s averaging 56.3 yards per game — more than double his average last year with the Bears (27.6).
10. Bear-ometer — 8-9: vs. Panthers (W); vs. Jaguars in London (W); at Commanders (L); at Cardinals (L); vs. Patriots (W); vs. Packers (L); vs. Vikings (W); at Lions (L); at 49ers (L); at Vikings (L); vs. Lions (W); vs. Seahawks (W); at Packers (L).