Denver Post Broncos writer Parker Gabriel posts his Broncos Mailbag weekly during the season and periodically during the offseason. Click here to submit a question.
What the heck happened with the Broncos on Sunday? Was it a favorable matchup against Tampa or were there other factors?
Is having the lowest-scoring team in the AFC going to be the norm this season with the Broncos? What needs to happen to jump-start this lethargic attack?
— Ed Helinski, Auburn, N.Y.
Hey Ed, good questions and thanks for writing in.
It was probably a bit of several different factors for the Broncos on Sunday against the Bucs. First is just that Denver played quite a bit better. It wasn’t perfect, but they converted twice in the red zone in the first quarter and that was enough with the way the defense played.
Sean Payton also knows Tampa Bay head coach Todd Bowles and his system well, has a ton of experience playing against the Bucs given his 16 years in the NFC South, etc. So that certainly didn’t hurt.
Then, don’t discount the fact that Tampa was missing Vita Vea on the defensive interior and Antoine Winfield Jr. at safety. Those are two elite middle-of-the-field players who were missing from a defense that had already surrendered a lot of yards but had been stout in the red zone early in the season.
At the same time, though, credit the Broncos for the things they did better offensively. Bo Nix looked more comfortable. He pushed the ball down the field on the opening drive of the game and loosened up the coverage. From there, he was able to settle into a rhythm. He still dropped back 39 times overall and Denver didn’t settle into its running game until Tyler Badie got going in the fourth quarter. But 26 points is going to win a lot of games, particularly the way Vance Joseph’s defense has been playing.
As for your last question, I don’t think we’re looking at a sustained offensive explosion here. There are still going to be rookie ups and downs for Nix. They still have to run the ball more consistently early in games. They’ve still got to be better than a 50% red zone touchdown percentage and better than 4 of 13 on third down (though two fourth-down conversions and a late-game turnover-on-downs once the game was fully decided do soften the blow). The Jets defense is much more disruptive than Tampa’s. If Denver puts together a similar outing this weekend, now you’re starting to wonder if they’ve turned a corner.
How the heck has Jim Harbaugh completely turned around the Los Angeles Chargers run game in his first year that Sean Payton hasn’t done?
— Gibson Hazard, Colorado Springs
Gibson, great question and thanks for writing.
Pretty impressive from Harbaugh, isn’t it? They look like a different team entirely already. Obviously, Justin Herbert’s injury situation could scramble the picture, but the Harbaugh effect is clear.
If it was easy to do what he did, everybody would. They made the right call, apparently, with JK Dobbins, who looks great. They drafted blue-chip tackle Joe Alt early despite having one in Rashawn Slater already on the roster. They committed to it. Fully. And the numbers so far early in the season back it up.
One obvious difference with Harbaugh getting to Los Angeles compared to Payton to Denver is the quarterback situation. Harbaugh had no reason to even wonder if he needed to make a move there because of Herbert. Payton tried it with Wilson for a year and decided he had to go another direction. When you’re set at that spot, you can attack every other one in the draft and free agency. When you’re not, you have to do whatever possible to fix it.
With Harbaugh in place, the AFC West only gets more daunting.
Hi Parker, is it just me or did Bo Nix look more like the QB that played in the preseason? The game seemed to slow down for him on Sunday. Also, seems like Tyler Badie should be the starting tailback and Lil’Jordan Humphrey should be promoted to the 53-man roster. Thanks.
— Brandon, Rogers, Minn.
Hey Brandon, yeah, interesting thoughts.
Last one first: Humphrey has already been promoted to the 53-man roster. Happened Saturday when the team put OLB Baron Browning on injured reserve with the foot injury.
Badie may not be far behind at this rate. He can be elevated one more time from the practice squad — you’d have to imagine that’ll be Sunday against the Jets — before he has to be promoted in order to continue being in uniform on game days. The way the room looks now, it’s hard to imagine the Broncos wouldn’t do that. One other thing to consider: Badie would have to be promoted next week and then Audric Estime is eligible to return off of injured reserve Week 5. So there could be movement coming one way or another at that position.
As for Nix, yeah, it was by far the best he’s played. It’s not a coincidence that it was also by far the least he’s been pressured through three weeks. Tampa was in the low 20s in terms of pressure percentage after Seattle and Pittsburgh pushed 40%. That’s a big difference. It allowed Nix to get settled into playing from the pocket and not get jumpy when an opposing jersey flashed in front of him or on the edge. It also led to his quickest time-to-throw of the season at a shade over 2.5 seconds. That’s quick and it’s just where Payton and company want it. Get to the line early, see the defensive structure, get the ball out quickly after the snap. That’s when Nix was at his best in camp and and during the preseason and it’s what helped power an improved outing Sunday.
What’s going on with Javonte Williams? He was such a beast last year, but it seems like he can’t get into the next gear after contact this year.
— Mike, Denver
Yeah, Mike, it’s been a rough start for Javonte Williams. I’ll push back on your assertion on last year. It was remarkable that he even got back on the field, especially to start the 2023 season. But he lacked juice then, too, and it got worse as the season went along. Williams has now gone 13 straight games without averaging more than 4 yards per carry. His season average is at 2.2 per carry this year.
It’s been said many times, but the knee injury Williams had in October 2022 against Las Vegas was a devastating one. Blazing speed has never been his calling card, but it looks like when he does break a tackle now, he has a tough time getting back to pull-away speed. At one point Sunday vs. Tampa, he looked like vintage Javonte in bulling through a tackle attempt, but then he tried to bounce outside away from the pursuit and it just didn’t yield much. You hope for his sake that his legs come back and he gets back to where he was in 2021 and early in 2022 before the injury. But so far it hasn’t happened.
Greg Dulcich didn’t get a single target last week. Is he in the doghouse after those drops the week before? And Tyler Badie has to be RB1 this week, right?
— Miles, Parker
Good catch, Miles (no pun intended). Dulcich did not have a single target against the Bucs and, like I wrote earlier this week, it’s been another slow start to the season for the Broncos tight ends overall.
Related Articles
Broncos stock report: No McGlinchey, no problem. Alex Palczewski impresses in first career start at right tackle
Upon Further Review: How much more can Broncos rely on rookie QB Bo Nix’s run game to expand offense?
Broncos’ next task: Carry momentum from first win through unique work week in West Virginia
Renck: Broncos’ Sean Payton finally produces signature win with decision to take ball first
Broncos’ third-quarter mega-drive ended in a field goal, but it powered 26-7 win at Bucs and provided blueprint going forward
I don’t think it’s a full-on dog house after the drops the past two weeks. Dulcich played at Tampa. And considering blocking isn’t his strong suit, there’s no reason to put him on the field if you’re not at least willing to throw him the ball. Payton and company could have de-activated him and played Lucas Krull instead, but they didn’t. I’m not surprised at all that Dulcich is ahead of Krull on the depth chart to start the season. If production continues to lag, though, you do wonder if they might want to see what it looks like with Krull.
As for Badie, the answer is simple. You’re billing yourself as a team that’s young and hungry and you’re in transition with a rookie quarterback. If you find a guy that produces, play him until he doesn’t. I’d have to imagine that’ll be the case with Badie going forward.
Want more Broncos news? Sign up for the Broncos Insider to get all our NFL analysis.