Sen. John Fetterman (D-PA) is warning that inaccurate political polling will be wielded as a weapon between now and November. And while polls may be inaccurate — even deliberately inaccurate, as the Senator asserts — that doesn’t mean they’re inconsequential.
Every race — and, critically, voter turnout in the race — is impacted by a sense of the respective candidates’ momentum, the source for which is often polls that media outlets rely upon to shape their narratives.
Sharing a social media post that claims GOP presidential nominee Donald Trump leads Democratic nominee Kamala Harris in critical election states — on the basis of “five new battleground polls” — Fetterman characterized the story as GOP-created malarkey, as Joe Biden might put it. (Fetterman uses stronger language.)
These bullshit GOP polls will keep flooding the zone—because Republicans know these may cost us wins, just like they did with my friend Mandela Barnes in Wisconsin in 2022.
Expect a deluge of this trash until November. pic.twitter.com/oHUGY9TiJP
— John Fetterman (@JohnFetterman) September 1, 2024
The Pennsylvania Senator warned the GOP will continue “flooding the zone” with inaccurate polls because the “Republicans know these may cost us wins.”
Fetterman cites the impact that he alleges biased polls had on the losing Senate candidacy of Democrat Mandela Barnes in Wisconsin in 2022, where incumbent Republican Ron Johnson squeaked out a victory after Republicans effectively painted Barnes as soft on crime.
[NOTE: Just before that midterm election, one of the polls Fetterman blasts showed Barnes with just 46% and Johnson with 52% — a huge margin. On election day, those polls were shown to be fallacious, as Johnson won with 50.5% of the vote to 49.5% for Barnes — about 27,000 votes.]
Fetterman admits that biased polls are an effective political weapon, even as he excoriates their use, warning voters to “expect a deluge of this trash until November.”
As mentioned above, polls are especially effective in influencing voter turnout, as people are less likely to go the extra mile to get to the ballot box if their preferred candidate is perceived as having little chance of victory.