ABC News-owned 538 released poll numbers on Thursday regarding two pivotal red-state Senate races: Democratic incumbent Sherrod Brown is still holding his own in Ohio, but incumbent Jon Tester has fallen behind in Montana.
Brown’s challenger is Republican Senate candidate Bernie Moreno; Tester’s challenger is Republican newcomer Tim Sheehy.
Note: The Senate race with the highest ad spending so far is Ohio ($310.4 million). Montana is third ($95 million). Pennsylvania, where incumbent Bob Casey faces Republican challenger David McCormick, is second ($207.4 million).
Checking in on two pivotal red-state Senate races: Sherrod Brown is still holding his own in Ohio, but Jon Tester has fallen behind in most Montana surveys. Lists via @FiveThirtyEight: pic.twitter.com/7QM9zq63dK
— Sahil Kapur (@sahilkapur) August 29, 2024
Tal Kopan, Deputy D.C. Bureau Chief of The Boston Globe, responded to the new 538 outlook: “If Republicans can flip Montana, that’s the whole ballgame for the Senate unless Dems can pull off a miracle in a state like Florida or Texas. 2024 Senate races were always stacked for the GOP — Dems had to achieve perfection in every tough seat or pull off a major upset.”
[Note: Democrat and former NFL player-turned-lawyer Colin Allred is running against incumbent GOP Senator Ted Cruz in Texas. In Florida, Sen. Rick Scott is being challenged by former Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell.]
Democrats should think about what kind of moves to the center they will be making in desperate efforts to get Lisa Murkowski and Susan Collins to help them confirm appointees, and think about making them *before Election Day* when it can help Tester and Allred. https://t.co/bkvDQoqNA2
— Matthew Yglesias (@mattyglesias) August 29, 2024
Political pundit and co-founder of Vox, Matthew Yglesias, assuming a Harris-Walz victory with a Republican Senate, replied: “Democrats should think about what kind of moves to the center they will be making in desperate efforts to get Lisa Murkowski and Susan Collins to help them confirm appointees, and think about making them *before Election Day* when it can help Tester and Allred.”
Yglesias doesn’t get specific on what the proposed centrist lurch — the Dems’ so-called “desperate efforts” to secure the approval of the two Republicans — would entail, but he contends that inevitable centrist moves designed to win the support of Murkowski and Collins might also win the support of undecided voters in Ohio and Montana in November — so why wait?