The 3M Open is one of the newer annual tournaments on the PGA Tour schedule. It debuted on the schedule in 2019 when 20-year-old Matthew Wolf beat 22-year-old Collin Morikawa in an incredible tournament. TPC Twin Cities hosts the 3M Open, which is right outside Minneapolis. Before taking over the 3M Open, TPC Twin Cities hosted a PGA Tour Champions event for 18 years.
TPC Twin Cities was designed in 2000 by the legendary Arnold Palmer along with Tom Lehman. Lehman is a Minnesota golf legend himself and helped out with this course located in the Minneapolis suburbs. The course runs as a Par 71 at around 7,500 yards. While it sounds pretty long, the elevation of the area along with hot weather makes it play fairly short overall.
Our model this week is looking at SG: Approach, SG: Off the Tee, Opportunities Gained, SG: Putting (Bent), SG: Par 5: 550-600 Yards, and Proximity: 175-200 Yards.
3M Open DFS Top Value: $9,000+: Keith Mitchell – $9,400
Mitchell has really figured it out at TPC Twin Cities recently. He finished 5th in his last two starts here in 2023 and 2021. That was done despite Mitchell losing strokes on approach in both starts. Considering Mitchell is 5th in SG: Approach and 1st in Opportunities Gained in this field in the last 24 rounds, it would be surprising if the irons were an issue once again this year.
Mitchell has struggled to produce strong finishes this year because of a disastrous putter. He’s gained strokes putting just five times all year. But at TPC Twin Cities, Mitchell has gained 17.7 strokes on the greens in just four starts. He’s clearly got something for these greens, which would make him incredibly dangerous this week considering his ball striking. While I like Finau a ton this week, I prefer Mitchell at $1,100 cheaper. He ranks 1st in my model.
3M Open DFS Top Value: $8,000-$8,900: Tom Hoge – $8,800
Tom Hoge looks over a putt at The Open Championship.
As a North Dakota man, this is as close to a home game as it gets for Tom Hoge. He’s been 4th and 20th in his last two tries here and would surely love a chance to get a trophy up north. In his 4th, Hoge gained 10.4 strokes on approach, which will always be the formula for the super talented iron player. Before some unsurprising struggles in the UK, Hoge finished 3rd at the elevated Travelers and gained 8.5 strokes on approach.
Hoge generally struggles on and around the greens, but he’s done just fine in that department at TPC Twin Cities in the last two starts. He’s also been a bit more decent with the putter throughout most of 2024. If he can hole enough putts, Hoge should tear the place up with his ball striking. He ranks 5th in my model.
Top Value: $7,000-$7,900: Rico Hoey – $7,500
Rico Hoey has now gone 8th, 2nd, 26th, and 6th in his last four starts. It’s clear the talented ball striker has begun getting comfortable as a PGA Tour rookie after a brutal start to the year. Hoey has been strong with that ball striking for much of the year, but as you’ve seen for the guys we like this week, the short game often fails him.
But Hoey’s putter has started catching fire. He’s gained strokes putting in four consecutive starts at a healthy number. If that continues, he should become a legitimate player on the Tour that can win tournaments like this. I don’t see why this form should stop here. He ranks 6th in my model.
3M Open DFS Top Value: $6,000-$6,900: Joel Dahmen – $6,800
Let’s just add one more to the board that we’ll be monitoring on the greens this week. It’s been the case for Dahmen throughout his career. He’s absolutely rock solid both off the tee and with the irons, but Dahmen often plays himself out of tournaments both on and around the greens.
But Dahmen gained 2.1 strokes on the greens in his last start and also gained 4.3 there in a 10th in Canada. Considering where the irons have been, Dahmen should have a chance to hole putts on these easier greens and contend in a weak field like this. I think this is a lovely price for a player who could surely log a top 10. He ranks 11th in my model.
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