Strikeout prop bets rank among the most sought-after betting lines in baseball. These wagers involve predicting whether a starting pitcher will surpass or fall short of a specified number of strikeouts during a game.
Below are a few strikeout prop bets our AI-driven dfsPro model likes for the games scheduled for July 9.
MLB Strikeout Prop Bets
Colin Rea Over 4.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-125, DraftKings)
In his last six home games, Colin Rea has consistently exceeded this line, achieving a strikeout rate of 63% for the season. Tonight, he faces the strikeout-prone Pittsburgh Pirates, particularly weak on the road with a staggering 27% strikeout rate over the past month. Their vulnerability against right-handed pitchers is evident, ranking 9th highest in strikeout percentage over the last 15 days and 5th highest for the season.
Recent matchups reinforce this trend, with 8 of the last 9 right-handed pitchers surpassing the 4.5 strikeouts mark against them at home. The betting line for Rea’s outs is set at 17.5 (-140), indicating expectations of at least 6 innings pitched, a manageable target for any starting pitcher facing Pittsburgh.
Furthermore, Rea has already faced Pittsburgh at home this season, recording 5 strikeouts in that game. His ability to excel against aggressive-hitting teams like the Cubs and Reds, surpassing this strikeout threshold three times already, underscores his potential for tonight’s matchup.
Jameson Taillon Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-135, DraftKings)
Despite exceeding this mark in his last two outings, Taillon has fallen short in 4 out of 6 road games this season and in 8 out of 14 overall. His recent successes in surpassing this line have largely been against teams with higher strikeout rates than today’s opponent.
Tonight, Taillon faces a challenging matchup against the Baltimore Orioles. Baltimore’s lineup holds a low 20.2% strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers this season, ranking 6th lowest in MLB. Over the last 30 days, they’ve maintained a similarly low strikeout rate of 19.5%, placing 7th lowest in the league.
Taillon’s previous encounter with the Orioles last year underscores the difficulty he may face. In that game, he managed only 1 strikeout over 5.1 innings pitched in Chicago, despite facing a lineup that included successful hitters like Mountcastle. Additionally, Orioles such as Hays, Mullins, and Urias have historically found success against Taillon.
Considering these factors, betting on Taillon to stay under 4.5 strikeouts appears prudent given the Orioles’ ability to make contact and Taillon’s previous struggles against them.
Strikeout Lock of the Day
Jake Irvin Under 5.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-140, DraftKings)
Jake Irvin has fallen short in 11 out of 18 starts this season, and this line was inflated following his recent 8-strikeout performance.
While this might raise concerns initially, the original line was set at 4.5 based on Irvin’s season-long data before his last start. Getting similar odds at a full strikeout higher presents exceptional value, especially considering the adjustments the New York Mets are likely to make after facing Irvin just five days ago. Typically, hitters make significant adjustments in such a short timeframe.
Moreover, the Mets have demonstrated a reluctance to strike out against right-handed pitchers this season, posting a 21.0% strikeout rate (11th lowest in MLB). Over the last 30 days, this rate has been even lower at 20.0%, ranking 8th lowest in the league.
Given these factors, betting on Irvin to stay under 5.5 strikeouts appears prudent, given both his historical performance and the Mets’ ability to limit strikeouts against right-handed pitching.
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