History Professor Allan Lichtman is a Democrat, but as a social scientist he lets his methodology talk — even when its results go against his political preferences. Lichtman has used his evolving methodology, which consists of 13 “keys” or historical factors, to predict 9 out of the last 10 American presidential elections correctly.
Recently Lichtman’s crystal ball envisioned Joe Biden‘s victory in 2020 over incumbent Donald Trump, but he also foresaw Trump’s victory in 2016 over Hillary Clinton, an upset that the majority of prognosticators famously missed — many by wide margins.
So as pundits and excitable journalists consistently call the 2024 election “unprecedented,” Lichtman asserts that while certain factors (the advanced age of the candidates, for example) are unique, the trend patterns he has seen over nearly half a century are likely to hold.
And those trend patterns, Lichtman says, don’t assign much weight to debates. This election and this debate, the professor says, will be the same despite Biden’s universally panned performance. Lichtman says the chatter around Biden’s bad night is akin to “sports talk radio” that has “no scientific basis” upon which to base any valid predictions about the upcoming election.
Asked directly to assess the impact of Biden’s botched debate, Lichtman replied: “Zero.” He added that “debates are not predictive of outcomes.”
Listen to this guy.
— Angry Staffer (@Angry_Staffer) June 30, 2024
About those who think Biden’s apparent brain fog during certain debate moments is evidence he’s unfit for the job?
“It’s a huge mistake,” Lichtman said during an interview with CNN. “They’re not doctors. They don’t know whether Biden is physically capable of carrying out a second term or not. This is all foolhardy nonsense.”
NOTE: Lichtman has not yet predicted a 2024 winner. The sole election he got wrong was the 2000 Bush v. Gore race, which was decided at the Supreme Court.