NFL Best Team Win Total Bets

Despite their disappointing 2-15 record, underlying metrics indicate the Carolina Panthers were better than their win-loss results suggest. They struggled in tight games (2-6), which are typically unpredictable regardless of team quality.

Their average point differential of -10.6 suggests they performed more like a team expected to win around 3.5 games according to Pythagorean expectations, rather than just two wins. Historically, teams that underperform their Pythagorean win total by at least one win often exceed expectations the following season, boasting an 83-68-4 record (55.0%) in favor of surpassing their win total.

The Panthers’ main issue in 2023 was their offense, which averaged a dismal 13.9 points per game, tying for the league’s lowest with the Patriots. My doubts about the Panthers last season largely stemmed from Frank Reich, who struggled to effectively scheme without strong assistants (like Nick Sirianni, Jonathan Gannon, and Matt Eberflus), failed to effectively scout quarterback talent (with Carson Wentz and Matt Ryan in Indianapolis), and had difficulty fostering team unity and motivation (evidenced by their late-season collapse in 2021 and subsequent mid-season firings).

Now, new head coach Dave Canales takes over, known for his role in Baker Mayfield’s career-best season with Tampa Bay and Geno Smith’s success in Seattle in 2022. It’s noteworthy that Smith’s performance declined significantly after Canales left, with decreases in completion rate (69.8% to 64.7%), touchdown rate (5.2% to 4.0%), and passer rating (100.9 to 92.1).

Only time will reveal Canales’ leadership abilities and his ability to balance offensive game planning with head coaching duties. However, his track record of maximizing the potential of struggling first-round quarterbacks like Young suggests promising developments ahead.

I’m heavily leaning towards betting against the Indianapolis Colts. This year presents new challenges, notably their poor net rest advantage of -17 days, one of the worst in the league. They only have one game where they enjoy more rest than their opponent, while in five games, their opponents have extra rest, with none facing opponents on short rest.

Anthony Richardson, who started four games last season, suffered two injuries and had limited rushes in the other two games. This workload isn’t sustainable for him over a full season. Joe Flacco, now serving as backup, had a solid stint with Cleveland but is 39 years old.

While the roster is solid, it lacks standout superstars. JuJu Brents and Dallis Flowers in the secondary were Day 3 draft picks. Kenny Moore, their top cornerback, is 30 and primarily plays in the slot.

Overall, I anticipate this team finishing below .500, especially with Houston improving and the Jaguars showing potential.